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View Diary: Why Nate Silver is UNDERestimating Obama's Chances (29 comments)

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  •  You're right (0+ / 0-)

    I'm not saying that Nate's numbers won't be better by Monday, but they are too low today.

    I'm also not sure that Nate can take GOTV into account in his model.

    I'm also not sure that Nate takes into account the diversity of the states in play.  My feeling from reading his articles is that he accounts for a possible across-the-board bias.  The fact that the 4 big states are so different insulates Obama to a certain extent that I don't think the model will capture

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