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View Diary: Nate Silver singlehandedly dismantling the myth of Mitt-mentum (233 comments)

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  •  Right (1+ / 0-)
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    I didn't.  His case seemed to be largely based on a wildly over-optimistic reading of the pre-election polls coupled with a categorical refusal to believe that anyone with any sense could possibly vote for Bush.

    He rightly cited election mismanagement, some of it apparently deliberately designed to suppress the Democratic vote, some apparently negligent (and culpably so).

    But his numbers don't add up to a Kerry win as far as I can tell, unless you scale the effect for which there is least evidence (actual vote theft) by some kind of factor based on the exit poll discrepancy, which is in any case fallacious.

    What part of his argument convinced you that deliberate shenagans occurred on a result-turning scale?

    Because that's what I am disputing.

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