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View Diary: Battleground snapshot, 8 days out (145 comments)

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  •  Lolol (0+ / 0-)

    Cats are better than therapy, and I'm a therapist.

    by Smoh on Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 01:21:39 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  It is an entire ENSEMBLE of R-leaning polls, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      and not only Rasmussen having effects in the poll averages such as tpm, pollster, 538, etc.

      Kos is exactly correct in stating that the lead in OH is approximately 3 pts., and this is is the average of the high-quality non-partisan polls, too.

      Nate Silver uses a "house effect" calculation to offset systematic partisan lean, and this is helpful in keeping the race in perspective.  He uses the house effect on polls, individually.  Sometimes, having a multitude of R-leaning polls can, however, sway even the house effect calculations.   As a result, the (R) poll house effect calculations can underestimate their actual house effect, and (L) leaning poll house effect calculations can be exaggerated.  This is part of an ongoing right-wing strategy, and it is one of the reasons why additional polls, such as Pharos, have been helpful in keeping a balanced view of the poll data.  As of 3am EST, had begun including Pharos data in FL & OH and for Senate races in NE, ND, and MT, helping to maintain more accurate monitoring of poll averages.

      One way to offset the overly large impact of right wing polls is to use the "create your own" model feature at (huffpo), de-selecting the polls with partisan lean, and any other low quality polls.  I have been doing this each day for the past 3 weeks, and the data consistently show that Obama and the Dems are in much better shape (≥1% better, on average) than one would observe if the mostly (R) leaning partisan polls are allowed to dominate the polling averages.

      It may be, in fact, that the D leaning polls tend to be more accurate, or at least as accurate as the high prestige non partisan polls, and if so, Dem fortunes may be considerably better still.

      However, we can at least say that, up until the fury of the storm cancelled campaign appearances, Obama was ahead by approx 3 in OH, 2 in VA, and 1 in CO, that FL was nearly tied, and that Obama is very close in NC as well.

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