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View Diary: Gallup is really looking crazy now (84 comments)

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  •  both (0+ / 0-)

    the early vote #s that have been quoted are both from polling and from direct stats from the states on party ID of ballots cast.

    Gallup's #s here run in direct contrast to all available data ... I think what this proves is that they are polling a different universe. they are wrong on early voting and thus also wrong on polling overall.

    •  They probably (0+ / 0-)

      oversampled Republicans, and they're probably getting more people from GOP-heavy constituencies, judging by the states that allow early voting.

    •  Thanks, but... (0+ / 0-)

      this raises even more questions for me.  How come I have NEVER heard early voter numbers quoted here or elsewhere, including on TV, as attached to ANY pollster?  Why wouldn't they say, for instance, CNN says early voting in this state is... etc. etc.  It just hasn't happened.

      And, when it comes to this site, although some might want to say we live in a bubble here, as we would accuse the other side of, when it comes to polling, that just isn't true.  In fact, EVERY nail baiting poll seems to equal at LEAST one diary, if not several, no matter how republican leaning it is.

      So. This just makes NO sense to me.  Until I read this diary, I have not heard ONE OTHER POLLSTER quoted regarding early voting numbers. I think this is very important, and no one is talking about it.

      And when you tell me what's wrong with Gallop's "early voting" numbers, I ask back to you, WHO ELSE is publishing polls on early voters?  Who else do we have to compare it to?    

      "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

      by StellaRay on Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 08:17:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Huh? (0+ / 0-)

        Several other pollsters have given early voting results in their polls over the last week.  PPP, for example, had Obama up 60-30 among early voters in Ohio a few days ago....and that was at least the third such set of numbers in Ohio alone.

        •  OH early vote (0+ / 0-)

          Any early voting number quoted for Ohio would have to be based on polling, because there is effectively no party registration here. People are "registered" as Democrats or Republicans if they voted in the previous respective primary, but since only 15% voted in the primaries, 85% of Ohio voters are currently "unaffiliated."

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