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View Diary: Nate Silver writes update article, still no Mellman OH poll (53 comments)

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  •  Comments on a Nate Silver Hit Piece...great! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lina, Sylv, bontemps2012, Russ Jarmusch

    The following below are comments are thought were sound in rebutting the current horse race meme article. Check it out.
    http://www.politico.com/...

    #1I guess that means Brooks and Scarborough are also saying that the 61-62% chance of winning at Intrade or 64% at Predictwise are all partisan hacks too.

    They have no concept of statistics or computer models at all. If Nate is wrong, it's because of garbage coming in from the polling. Nate will only be as good as the polling and how he interprets it.

    So Nate got 49 of 50 states last time. Really great. Princeton election consortium got the exact number of electoral college votes in 2004 and missed it by 1 in 2008. Right now, they have Obama at 305. Nate has Obama at 296. RealClearPolitics, which is a right-leaning website, has Obama at 290.

    #2 [In response to praise the University of Colorado Model]: These conservative screeds against statistics and polling are just further proof that they don't believe in math and science. If Mitt wins, you might as well fire all the math and science teachers in the country, since the GOP don't believe in those there subjects.

    The UC model has only been tested retrospectively, and has not predicted any election correctly so far.

    A quote from Michael Berry -one of the developers of the UC model: "Our model was developed after the 2008 election. The only election that we forecast is the 2012 election. When we populate the model with data from each of the election years from 1980 through 2008, we correctly estimate the winner in each of those elections."

    #3:
    Good point. If you use Rove's current electoral map, you get Obama 281, Romney 235 (Tied=22). Split the tied votes and you get 292-246, almost identical to Nate's 295-243.

    The above comments are various comments that support our cause. They offer a great push-back to the conservative Media Horse Race "Steal the Election with Tagg Romney's machine" meme. LoL, I may have went a little with the last sentence, but it's a thought.

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