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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Why I love Bill Clinton (the latest in a continuing series) (161 comments)

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  •  This is an amazing comment (3+ / 0-)
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    NMLib, itskevin, MBishop1

    You're pretty sure polls that don't provide regional breakdowns have Romney winning in a particular region?  By definition, you're making that up out of whole cloth.

    On the SUSA poll, crosstabs are unreliable, as I say all the time, perhaps weekly.  That applies to regional crosstabs more than most, since there are typically more than just two or three categories in a big state, and that makes the subsamples even smaller and less valid.

    On Mason-Dixon, that's the only poll specifically for central Florida and therefore has more value, but it's only one poll, and Mason-Dixon has a poor reputation for accuracy.

    What I would look for is campaign stories that include little gems like, "operatives concede the President is polling poorly in central Florida."  That is the kind of reveal from privaet polling I search for.  But I haven't seen anything like that about Florida.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 07:07:31 AM PDT

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