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View Diary: Observation(s) about Q poll & Detroit News Poll & UPDATE on PPP (34 comments)

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  •  note PPP numbers just added (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sylv, wwjjd, binkycat, pamelabrown, Lujane

    on IA & WI

    And btw, assume Obama holds MI & PA wins NV, OH, IA & NH.  That is base of 281, and even losing WI or MN would not change outcome of the election.

    I think Obama is locked for those 281, and the question then shifts to

    CO
    FL
    NC
    AZ

    in order of likelihood Obama carries.

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 05:38:59 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  These are good numbers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lujane

      but I would add three notes of caution:
      1.  The race is clearly closing in Michigan, and perhaps Pennsylvania
      2.  In many of these states Obama is still under 50.  In 2004 the vote did not break against the incumbent - it didn't in '92 either.  But it DID in '96 (in a serious way) and in '80.  
      3.  The problem with the odds makers is that they are ignoring the chance of a 2 point shift accross the board.  That has happened in about 1/3 of elections since 1976.

      Now my nowcast has Obama at 77.1%.  He is ahead.  But there is more uncertainty about polling than is being recognized.

      I still think we are going to win, but this is very far from a done deal.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 06:34:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the undecide pool is quite low (0+ / 0-)

        and there are third parties on the board.

        This doesn't tend to result in sudden 2 point shifts this late in the game.

        •  Actually the (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Lujane

          third party vote almost always collapses late.  The undecided here are not really that much lower than in prior elections involving incumbents.

          The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

          by fladem on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 06:54:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think it might expand in VA (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Lujane

            particularly if people tend to think Obama is going to win, you will then see movement towards Goode.

            "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

            by teacherken on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 06:58:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  One worry I have (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Lujane

              is about the libertarian vote - which may move to the GOP late.  In 2000 the Nader vote really collapsed in key states - it is why national polling missed Gore's win in the popular vote.

              It would not surprise me to see a Ron Paul endorsement this weekend.

              The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

              by fladem on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 07:01:15 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Going to disagree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        a2nite, Lujane

        the data MIGHT have shown closing a few days ago, but I have no doubt it is NOT closing now

        these are head to head and do not take into account any impac of 3 party candidates.  I can assure you that makes a real difference in VA.  And if Obama takes VA on top of WI, OH, NV, IA and NH he is at 294 and Romney is in deep do-do b/c he would have to get FL, CO and NC and then flip more than one of MN, MI and PA.   And I do not see him winning any of them.

        "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

        by teacherken on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 06:57:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Latest Michigan poll this morning (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Lujane

          shows Michigan a 3 point race.  Both campaigns have bought time in Pennsylvania - though this may be a shift of resources resulting from the fact that about 1/3 the vote in some key states has already been cast.

          My fear remains 2000 in reverse.

          The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

          by fladem on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 07:04:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  wow one note of caution is not enough (0+ / 0-)

        you need 3?  you spend a lot of time thinking of ways to be negative

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