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View Diary: Discussing The Meteorological Side of Hurricane Sandy (117 comments)

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  •  Blocking patterns... (7+ / 0-)

    Are one of the most stable phenomena for models to forecast.  Give me a 200kt jet screaming across the Pacific, or a blocking pattern setting up over the Grand Banks, and I'll put my money on the models' extended-range performance in the latter scenario any day.  A weak rex-block (high over low) will usually take at least 7-14 days to work itself out.

    The blocking pattern was the only reason I had the confidence to tell my friends back east that this was for real 5 days ahead of time.

    And...by the way...INCREDIBLE performance by the ECMWF on this.  They nailed the landfall pressure, location, and timing with their 96 hour forecast.  But hey...our models are better...because they're AMERICAN.  No questions asked, please.

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