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View Diary: On Polls, or Once Upon a Time I Clapped Until My Hands Were Swollen to Save Tink (32 comments)

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  •  Like it or not, people get motivated (0+ / 0-)

    more when they feel they're winning rather than losing.  One of the reason's Romney's supporters didn't fall off the cliff is because of constant messaging when they were down in the polls that it wasn't true.  We all know it was true, sure, but when it comes to preserving the morale of your supporters, perception and spin matter.

    How did Romney get away with a prolonged media glow about a polling "surge" after the first debate?  Because his surrogates were out there spinning it like crazy, and it became a self-reinforcing meme.

    So don't tell me that we shouldn't crow about positive polls.  It does motivate us.  It does improve morale.  And, almost as importantly, it helps sap morale from the other side.  A large part of why Romney's polling "surge" looks better than it probably really was is because previously-unenthusiastic Romney supporters started to feel better about their guy's chances, which in turn spurred their motivation to vote.  LV models gauge enthusiasm, and a lot of it came from Republicans perking up about their prospects.

    To turn your own logic around, nobody is going to stop the GOTV actions they're already doing because of some good poll numbers coming out.  It may even motivate them more.

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