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  •  Nate Silver on Pres. Approval: (0+ / 0-)
    What we can say is important is the range in which Mr. Obama’s approval ratings have been varying in recent months: between about 45 and about 50 percent. If Mr. Obama’s approval rating is at the top of that range, 50 percent, on Nov. 6, 2012 — about where it is now — the model figures that his chances of winning re-election will be greater than 80 percent. But if his approval rating is at the bottom of the range instead, at 45 percent, his chances for a second term will be only about one in three, and he’ll have to hope that the Republican nominee is a weak one.
    The article is from quite some time ago, but I love that he uses Gallup to show the relationship between approval rating and chances of re-election (older pollster, so more data). Anyway, this points out the obvious signal that Gallup's daily tracker is fked up: their daily presidential approval tracker, which, by Gallup's own history, puts the President in position for re-election. Either the daily tracker is wrong or the approval rating tracker and 60 years of Gallup polling is.

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