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View Diary: Princeton Election Consortium - a technical announcement (199 comments)

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  •  Here's hoping it goes better than 2004 (5+ / 0-)

    I noticed that the 2004 diary was 95% certain Kerry would beat Bush.  But it was July; too early to call, obviously.  I feel a lot better about where we are in 2012, and appreciate your work on this!

    •  My thoughts on prediction have matured in 8 years (6+ / 0-)

      At that time, I did not engage in prediction. The probability I posted in 2004, which is what I now call a snapshot. Similar in spirit to Nate's Now-meter.

      This year I started to use the data to predict outcomes. Using the methods on July 2004 data would have predicted about 3-2 odds in Kerry's favor. Which in retrospect was about right. One often loses 3-2 bets.

      •  the "i-vote" was embryonic in 2004 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wu ming, semiot

        Deaniacs brought our magic to wonkish attention in 2004, but our influence was still quite nascent.

        Internet-mediated influence over electoral results, and application of digital tools for analysis, has blossomed quite a bit since.

        The digitally-enabled shift from mass-communication to demassified-communication is now in high gear, and the implications for re-energized democracy are sprouting all over.

        Thanks for your pioneering contribution, and let's keep that i-vote expansion going!

        -- iVote2004, '79

        #3: ensure network neutrality; #2: ensure electoral integrity; #1: ensure ecosystemic sustainability.

        by ivote2004 on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:31:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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