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  •  Is mystery solved by Repub gaming the poll system? (44+ / 0-)

    The sudden appearance of mystery pollsters with a Repub lean, such as Gravis,  makes me wonder if Repubs aren't trying to game the polling system to give Repub candidates apparent momentum. This would increase Repub enthusiasm and generate the appearance of "voter fraud" when Repub candidates come up short.

    I certainly won't accuse long-standing pollsters with good records of skewing or gaming the system, but why are we allowing pollsters with clear Repub leanings and ties to get away with polling that gets results far to the right of experienced name brand pollsters?

    look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

    by FishOutofWater on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 06:51:22 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  That would explain (17+ / 0-)

      the hysterical insistence from the campaign that Romney (really) is surging with momentum (still) even in states he won't win.  Calling their recent sham photo ops "victory celebrations," e.g., and claiming they're expanding the map. Must be a little embarrassing for old political hands.

      Manipulating the press to write the momentum story is part of the strategy--and it seems a lot of people and orgs were in on it.  

      Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

      by Catskill Julie on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 07:51:26 PM PDT

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    •  I suspect so! (13+ / 0-)

      Just logically, the last thing they would ever ever ever want is to be perceived as losing while the game is still on.  To really, really lose -- to be way behind in the polls would just kill the GOP.  They are all about perception and illusion!!!

      Even if Obama ends up winning by a large margin, the take-away from a SEEMINGLY tight race is "oh, well, we put up a good fight and our party is still hot-to-trot".

      And, of course, it is much easier to steal a SEEMINGLY close election.  

      I have NO doubt, not a bit, that they are manipulating the polling in amazing ways.  

      I truly believe they are running on fumes... without FOX and a disabled mainstream media the agend of this modern day GOP would go over like a lead balloon.  Their entire Empire of Illusion is built on lies and deception.  

      They are living off of IDEAS THAT ARE DEAD OR DYING.  

      •  A more sinister possibility: (9+ / 0-)

        Fostering the illusion of an imminent Republican win also creates significant cover for a stolen election, especially if they are pre-emptively screaming "Democratic Voter Fraud" from every virtual rooftop.

        Between all of the voter suppression efforts, the recently revealed trick of disallowing absentee ballots for "signature mismatch" with no possibility of review (do they have any way of knowing the registration of absentee voters?), the "disappearing registrations", and the ever-present possibility of outright electronic tampering -- NONE of which requires a conspiracy theory, because all of those things have happened and there is no reason to believe that they are not still happening -- the possibility of (another) stolen election looms large, especially given how "close" the MSM are determined to make this look.

        Not only cover, but the Republicans will do everything possible to create an atmosphere of intimidation and even threats of imminent violence should there be a national challenge of a stolen election.

        I sincerely hope I'm being unnecessary alarmist. But a wise person once said that forewarned is forearmed.

        "But there is so much more to do." - Barack Obama, Nov. 4, 2008

        by flitedocnm on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 11:31:04 PM PDT

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        •  You forgot the absentee ballots (3+ / 0-)

          Generating bogus GOP registrations, as multiple arms of the well-funded GOP 'GOTV' system have been caught doing is the first step to generating bogus absentee ballots for those voters.  Using modern micromarketing database techniques, it should be possible for them to identify non-voters, then register and vote for them. Is it a coincidence that the GOP voter fraud legal templates ignored or loosened restrictions on absentee ballots?

        •  eh, a bit CTish (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          OhioNatureMom, kirkm
          the recently revealed trick of disallowing absentee ballots for "signature mismatch" with no possibility of review
          Absentee ballots are disallowed because of signature mismatches in every election; the number is relatively small. To call it a "recently revealed trick" and interpret it as an attempt to steal the election is silly.
          the "disappearing registrations"
          Certainly could be an attempt to steal the election, although from the evidence we have so far, it looks pretty localized and inept. I don't know the answer, except by negative inference: The Obama campaign should have little trouble estimating the fraction of its Get Out The Vote prospects who aren't properly registered, and if the fraction were high, I think we would be hearing a lot more about this problem.
          and the ever-present possibility of outright electronic tampering -- NONE of which requires a conspiracy theory, because all of those things have happened and there is no reason to believe that they are not still happening
          The possibility of outright electronic tampering does exist, yes. I'm not sure what it means to say that that has "happened," except in the same sense as the possibility of a catastrophic event at the Indian Point nuclear plant has happened and is still happening.

          It'll be hard to steal Ohio through electronic tampering, since all the votes are recorded on paper. Perhaps somewhat easier to steal Pennsylvania, since many are not -- but there is no reason to think that someone in Harrisburg (or Wheeling or Pyongyang or whatever) can change votes all over the state by pushing a button. Localized subversion would probably be simpler.

          If you think that polls are being rigged to cover a multimodal attempt to steal the election, that's a speculative theory about a conspiracy. Whether that theory "forearm[s]" us in any useful way is not immediately obvious to me.

          Election protection: there's an app for that! -- and a toll-free hotline: 866-OUR-VOTE
          Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

          by HudsonValleyMark on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 03:01:55 AM PDT

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          •  Did you miss the diary (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Imhotepsings, tle

            on Florida rejecting thousands of absentee ballots, not just an isolated one or two?

            And yes, a person's party affiliation would be available to the officials checking signatures. So it's not at all trollish to suggest that just maybe, the signature check is a bit more "thorough" for certain voters than for others.

            •  who said "an isolated one or two"? (0+ / 0-)

              How many absentee ballots are cast in Florida? How many are rejected or otherwise uncounted? How many are rejected through signature matches?

              So it's not at all trollish to suggest that just maybe, the signature check is a bit more "thorough" for certain voters than for others.
              Frankly, it's also a bit CTish to move the goalposts from "a recently revealed trick" to "suggest[ing] that just maybe." If anyone has any evidence that the signature check is being applied inequitably, let's see it. I'm not ruling out the possibility. I'm saying that we shouldn't leap to assuming it as fact. Nor should we obfuscate the distinction. That's my view.

              Election protection: there's an app for that! -- and a toll-free hotline: 866-OUR-VOTE
              Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

              by HudsonValleyMark on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 07:42:43 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          loveistheanswer

          This combination of forces could easily allow electronic fraud without detection.  Every false report of a Romney surge makes me believe they are ready to do this in Ohio.

          "I seek to rise with workers, not rise from them.” – Eugene Debs

          by IngThing on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 07:00:55 AM PDT

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          •  So what are "we" planning on doing if this (0+ / 0-)

            happens?  

            I am thinking even IF they concede the election to Obama, they are going to encourage massive amounts of rumors, outright lies, etc to spread in order to delegitimize Obama (for the next four years!)  

            That is, IF they can't manage to outright steal it.  Both ways, they win, if you want to look at long term strategy.  They will do everything they can to make Obama's second term inept.  They might fail at this, however.  Because times are a changin'.  

            Wow, next week will be wild.  

        •  Democrats, politicians. Republicans, criminals. (0+ / 0-)

          Try that for your 99% accurate Theory of the Day.

    •  I think it's the advertising (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FishOutofWater

      The media constantly play's the false equivalence game, so every time Romney lies, they have to find something from Obama to make it look balanced.  But Obama's campaign has done a good job of exposing just how dishonest Romney/Ryan are, in the swing states.

      So in the swing states, the voters are getting exposed to who Romney and Ryan really are, but in the other states, the people only see the false equivalency that  CNN/ABC/CBS/NBC...  present to the viewers.  It's easier to buy into a liars lies when you never get to see the truth.  If we had national campaigns, and a competent media, I suspect Romney/Ryan would be losing by a big margin.

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