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View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: The Math (97 comments)

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  •  Party ID in OH (3+ / 0-)

    Be aware that there is no such thing as party registration in Ohio, or more technically, people are tagged as Democratic or Republican based on which party if any they voted with in the last primary. Miss the last primary and you instantly go to unaffiliated status. So as far as the Ohio boards of election are concerned, about 85% of people are listed as unaffiliated in any given election.

    It's true that people will often state that they are a Republican or Democrat based on metaphysical factors of their own choosing, but nowhere do you officially put your name on the dotted line for any party.

    Most Ohioans voting for Obama this election would identify as Democrats because they voted in the D primary, or because, hey, that's the way the metaphysical winds are blowing.

    The practice of discounting raw poll results to reweight by presumed ratios of party ID smacks of pseudoscience.

    •  "smacks," sir? Nay, it is. I know not "smacks." ;) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skohayes, elmo

      To be clear, self-identification in polls isn't the same as party registration even in states that have party registration. As you say, people can self-identify however they want. It isn't as if the Republican Party has been a great brand over the last four years.

      (And of course Morris is just full of stuff when he claims that CBS/NYT/Q weights to 2008 party ID.)

      Election protection: there's an app for that! -- and a toll-free hotline: 866-OUR-VOTE
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 05:21:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Screw the skewers (0+ / 0-)

      Correctamundo!

      This alleged skewing is bullshit. No pollster is going down the voter list picking Dems/Rep/Ind to sample. Those party id's are self-selected; they're an output not an input of the poll. In a lot of states the pollster has no way of knowing party when the make the call, as you point out.

       

      A society is judged by how well it cares for those in the dawn of life, the children. By how well it cares for those in the twilight of life, the elderly. And, by how well it cares for those on the edge of life; the poor, the sick, and the disabled.

      by BobBlueMass on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 07:37:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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