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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: New polls show momentum for Joe Donnelly in Indiana Senate race (94 comments)

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  •  strong chance of Obama victory dawning on pundits (7+ / 0-)

    The rationalizations ("it's Sandy") are already starting, though Halperin has decided to dive into poll unskewer territory:

    Gosh, if only mainstream media outlets had the same resources as anonymous commenters on the internet, they could figure this one out!

    Let's see... all these polls are showing an electorate slightly more conservative than the one that elected Bush but still showing Republican identification low. Could it be, maybe, a continuation of the well-documented and long-term trend of conservatives preferring to identify as Independents rather than embarrass themselves by association with Republicans?

    Speaking of 2004:

    INDEPENDENTS
    Kerry: 49%
    Bush: 48%

    Of course, as usual, the logical poll unskewer explanation is that Kerry secretly won 2004.

    •  Independents are not the same as Moderates (8+ / 0-)

      Shouldn't Halperin know this by now?

      Fall dkos polls show Independents are 28% Conservative versus 12% Liberal, with the balance Moderate. (N=2225)

      For the record, Obama's winning Moderate Independents 47-41 in dkos fall polling, while losing Conservative Indys 15-76 and winning Liberal Indys 72-14. Although given the swings in polling this fall it's not the best idea to aggregate all the polls together. Overall, dkos fall polling averages out to Obama +0.9 points.

      •  he should, but acknowledging this reality (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cybersaur, JBraden

        would make the horse race analysis a whole lot less interesting.

        Acknowledging that "independents" have become more conservative due to shifts from the GOP is just so dry and boring. Who could do a Morning Joe segment about that? But poll conspiracy! That's a story!

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