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View Diary: Princeton Election Consortium - Resolving national vs. state polls (84 comments)

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  •  another partial explanation: does my vote matter? (1+ / 0-)
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    elwior

    there is evidence that potential Dem voters are more likely, than Republican ones, to sit out the election. But if they feel that their vote counts (i.e. it's a close races as in swing states) then they are more likely to actually go vote. So I think the closer nature of the presidential election in swing states could explain some of the discrepancy between swing state polls and national polls.

    here's some text from a draft diary that I was working on (but I never tried to crunch the numbers in order to test the above theory).

    a poll (from USA Today/Suffolk University). It found that among non voters, Obama has a 43-21 advantage over Romney. (This agrees with another question about the 2008 election, where these same non voters said they voted 44% for Obama to 20% for McCain, with 32% not voting.)
    The survey identified one extremely persuasive argument. Among Obama supporters, 85% [of non voters] say they would go to the polls if they knew their vote would help swing a close election to the president; 70% of Romney supporters say the same for their candidate.
    The poll also found that 69% of these potential non voters were actually registered to vote.

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