#### Comment Preferences

• ##### Look, Nate freely admits that a Romney win(30+ / 0-)

could happen. If something has a 30% chance of happening, or even a 25% chance of happening, you are not saying that it can't happen. I would like to have a 25% chance of finding a million dollars on the street. I would like to have 25% chance of getting through the next year without knee surgery. I would like to have a 25% chance of living til I'm 110. So Nate is not saying that Romney can't win. He's saying that the odds significantly favor Obama. That's all.  And even THAT is more than Joe can handle. Heh.

• ##### Excellent point.(5+ / 0-)

That's why Joe's "50.1 percent" idea is so lame.  Yes indeed there is a sizable chance, about 1 in 3, that Romney could pull this out.  GOTV!

Still enjoying my stimulus package.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Not according to Sam Wang(12+ / 0-)

known around these parts as "mindgeek."  He uses two prediction models -- one gives Obama 96% likelihood of victory, the other 99%.

Nobody puts Baby in a binder!

[ Parent ]

• ##### That 50.1 % thing is from a Romney quote(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Fury, sethtriggs, here4tehbeer

Back during primary season a reporter asked Romney a policy question "You want to do this, but what about these people who will be left out?"
Romney replied saying he only needed "50.1% of the vote" and that he wasn't concerned.

Everybody got to elevate from the norm....

[ Parent ]

• ##### Doesn't 25% = 1 in 4, not 1 in 3?(0+ / 0-)

Why are we inflating Romney's chances? :)

• ##### I was doing old math(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
sethtriggs

from when Nate's number was around 70 percent, so you are right it's less than 1 in 4

Still enjoying my stimulus package.

[ Parent ]

• ##### most folks don't understand how(3+ / 0-)

probabilities work.  That's why they now start in elementary school to give kids a feeling for how it describes predictions. For some folks it can be seem counter-intuitive, their intuition says why isn't every event 50/50: either it happens or it doesn't. Election models and climate models all have same underpinings in computer modelling. MATH AND SCIENCE EDUCATION IS IMPORTANT!! Only one of the two candidates has repeatedly emphasized the importance of math and science education.

• ##### Where's Schrödinger when you need him?(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Patate

Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
—Spike Milligan

[ Parent ]

• ##### Petting his cat?(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
polecat

Maybe.

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

[ Parent ]

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