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View Diary: Nate Silver unskews Morning Joe (299 comments)

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  •  Question for Nate (or anyone else) about Fla. (0+ / 0-)

    Nate give Romney a 3.5% advantage in Fla. on 'state fundamentals'.  This is despite the fact that democrats have about a 450K registration advantage and a far superior ground game.

    Anyone want to speculate about the reason for this advantage?

    •  I dont think (0+ / 0-)

      the Democrats in general have a better ground game in FL, maybe OFA has. The state party is not in that great shape.

      How many statewide elected officials (so gerrymandering is not an excuse) are there in FL that are Democrats? Only Nelson. And even before 2010, it wasnt much better.

      There are a lot of Dixiecrats in North FL, so the registration advantage doesnt have too much weight.

      Obama carried FL with a 2.5%-margin, while winning nationally by over 7. So FL is obviously tilted a bit to the right.

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