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View Diary: Nate Silver unskews Morning Joe (299 comments)

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  •  How does Intrade even work? (1+ / 0-)
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    Who's fronting the money for actual trades?  A lot of the trading events on Intrade have fixed ends (i.e. - the election), whereas normal stock trading involves companies that in general continue to exist.  And if they stop existing, whatever shares you have are worthless.

    You need to be able to sell your shares, so who's going to buy a share for Obama winning on Nov. 6 on Nov. 7?  It doesn't make any sense to me.

    #RomneyRyan2012: Because one white, rich, male Republican asshole is never enough.

    by mconvente on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 11:13:39 AM PDT

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    •  Someone took the other side of the trade when you (8+ / 0-)

      initiated a position. If you bet Obama wins, someone on the other side of the trade bets he loses (at the same price, for a set number of "shares"). When the market "settles" (the election), you will receive ten dollars per share. That money comes straight from the accounts of people who bet that Romney would win, sweetening the pot even further. Intrade works just like a futures exchange. There is a loser for every winner, and that's where the money comes from.

      Let's go back to E Pluribus Unum

      by hazzcon on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 11:32:24 AM PDT

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      •  Correct - Intrade a game of "Who's the sucker?" (2+ / 0-)
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        mconvente, Compost On The Weeds

        And I have a hunch it's the Wall Street prick on the other side of the trade, convinced everyone hates Obama as much as all of Wall Street hates him and his revolting plan to raise capital gain tax on fuckers like Romney.  Stealing from the rich will make election night so much more delicious for this 47%er, 99%'er, whatever they wanna call me.  I'M POOR

        •  Incorrect - The Wall Street (4+ / 0-)

          pricks bet on Obama. They are not fools. They get their right wing zealots to bet on Romney so they can make a haul themselves. They didn't get to be rich Wall Street pricks by being naive. Call them cynical realists.

          (Full disclosure: I set off my own snark detector as I wrote this. Sometimes I just can't help myself.)

          Why is this thing even close?

          by ebrann on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 01:18:08 PM PDT

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          •  Actually, the numbers suggest (1+ / 0-)
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            that Obama is oversold on Intrade (or Romney is overbought) because Obama's numbers are lower than Nate Silver's.  So there are a lot of people on there that are betting against Nate Silver's numbers.

            And I say good for them.  I applaud their courage and faith in their fellow wall street candidate.  Bravo gentlemen.

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