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View Diary: Nate Silver unskews Morning Joe (299 comments)

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  •  Wire Money from bank to intrade and how it works: (4+ / 0-)

    A few days ago i looked into intrade.  In order to trade, money has to be in your account.  Direct bank transfers, paypal, credit cards will not work.  They either want an old fashion check sent thru snail mail (and the check will never clear by nov 6), or use the bank wire facility of your bank: usually an overnight process--at a cost!  Last time i looked my bank wanted something like $40 and that was years ago.

    Ok, so you have money in the account and you now want to take money away from some dumbass conservative who still believes R$ is going to win.  Obama to win is now at $6.61 a share.  Lets pretend to buy 100 shares for $661 (plus small fee) from Mr Dumbass.  On nov 7, each share you just bought will either be worth $10 if Obama wins, or $0 if they steal the election.  When Obama wins you just made $339 and you took it away from some dumbass maybe named Rush.  If they steal the election you are out the $661, but thats the risk in this game.  These bets are ongoing and undoubtedly we high information kosers could take a good chunk of money from the fox news watchers who place dumb bets on intrade. And we could do it consistently.  A second income anyone?

    Elizabeth Warren 2016!

    by windwardguy46 on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 02:57:18 PM PDT

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    •  no get rich scheme available (0+ / 0-)

      Doesn't work that way, unfortunately.

      You need to have matched shares to buy.

      The volume is incredibly low.

      There are a small but very efficient group of sports bettors that scoop up almost all available positions that differ significantly from Pinnacle Sports (which is considered to be the most accurate source). They don't care in the slightest bit about the politics involved. (Or rather they are not going to let their own personal politics influence their wagering very much.) They know all about Nate Silver's work, because his work was very useful for baseball wagering. The money from these "sharps" outweighs the money from the random punter who is putting a few dollars to back the Faux News story they heard. The sharps who are rightwing nutters and who are allowing their heart to really get in the way of their head in terms of betting are arguing that the election is probably only 63-65% in favor of Obama (rather than the low 70s that seems to be the fair price assumption) . On sports betting forums, you'll see a fair amount wagers arranged with proxies to hold bets of any size if the parties don't know each other. Even the most rapid RW partisans are not wagering any significant amount of money at evens.

      The fact that the few shares that are available on Intrade are out of line with Pinnacle just highlights the barriers to entry (especially in terms of difficulty getting money on and off the site). If there were not barriers to entry, these "scalps" would disappear in minutes. It's a form of arbitrage.

      The fact that the few shares available on Intrade are mispriced might also reflect a fear of the money being seized. You require a larger edge to place money there because you have to factor in the chances that the friendly neighborhood DOJ seizes the site and all the money on it, LIKE IT ALREADY HAS for multiple other sites. The only other places you find stale lines like this are in places that have either questionable ability or questionable inclination to pay out. We call those "deposit only" sportsbooks.

      The plural of anecdote is not data.

      by Skipbidder on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 07:12:23 PM PDT

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