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View Diary: Obama owes Biden a (root) beer. Or 20. (124 comments)

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  •  And yet, the timing could have been prompted (9+ / 0-)

    by Biden's undeniable domination of Ryan in their debate.

    "So, please stay where you are. Don't move and don't panic. Don't take off your shoes! Jobs is on the way."

    by wader on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 07:41:26 PM PDT

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    •  I am not denying that the polls started shifting (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wader, Nulwee, sebastianguy99

      after Debate #2.  I am arguing that the polls would have shifted nonetheless.

      Correlation and causation are, of course, not the same.

      Follow me on Twitter: @THTBAW. I crush trolls with truth, boredom with snark, and ignorance with links.

      by therehastobeaway on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 07:45:20 PM PDT

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      •  The root beer seems appropriate for Biden (12+ / 0-)

        because he broke the logjam at that time.

        And, considering the easy demoralization of Democrats around the country after reviews came in from Presidential Debate #1, that was an important emotional - and polling - lift to offer, I feel.

        Yes, it would have eventually risen, regardless.  Sometimes, you get what you need . . . when you need it.  That's a point the diarist could expand upon, I feel.

        "So, please stay where you are. Don't move and don't panic. Don't take off your shoes! Jobs is on the way."

        by wader on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 08:15:02 PM PDT

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        •  I don't disagree, and I myself felt (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Nulwee, vivadissent, Amber6541, wader

          elated when I watched that second debate.  It was a huge sigh of relief.  I follow left-leaning political journos on Twitter, and it was demoralizing to watch them wring their hands for days, having obviously taken no lessons from the politically effective behaviors of the hard right.

          But my emotional response to Biden's debate aside, I do not at all rest Obama's skyrocketing success in the polls and in Nate Silver's prognostication as emanating from Biden's performance.  Give Biden a root beer for doing his job as VP in that second debate.  

          I think the other 19 root beers should go to Obama, since he's the one responsible for his dynomite comeback.

          Follow me on Twitter: @THTBAW. I crush trolls with truth, boredom with snark, and ignorance with links.

          by therehastobeaway on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 08:20:39 PM PDT

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          •  but that's precisely it (5+ / 0-)
            But my emotional response to Biden's debate aside . . .
            No, your emotional response to Biden's is precisely it. Not just you.  That's the same "elation" that was felt by millions.  Everyone around me was depressed by Obama's first debate (or elated but, among the few Republicans I know).  Substantively, that first debate led some of us to start dwelling on the disappointments we'd had with the Obama administration, everything from softpedaling on environment to late action on immigration etc.  

            The point is enthusiasm.  If Biden had done as depressingly in his debate, as Obama had done in his first one, I do think that would have had a detectable impact on peoples emotional response all over the country.  Sure, Obama deserves far and away more credit for this thing than a VP.  (All right, maybe the diary is over the top.)  But that VP made some difference.  The diary's not bad in cherishing that moment.  It doesn't distract from Obama's greatness.

            •  I think (0+ / 0-)

              there's a difference between saying, "Biden made us feel a lot better" (which is true) and "Biden turned this ship around and saved Obama's ass" (which is a bunch of stuff).

              Let me paraphrase this diary's sentiment: "When Biden smacked Paul Ryan down"...
               

              It felt good to be a Democrat again.
              Pfft.  This is a huge problem we liberals have and must address.  We are histrionic.  Let me tell you something:

              When Mother Jones broke the 47% story on September 17, it was as though all of the oxygen that could possibly be in a room was sucked out of that room.  It was a disaster for Romney.  It was THE STORY of this election.  It was an absolute GAME-CHANGER IN ALL CAPS, something that political pundits and poly sci types will be studying for another hundred years.  Romney went from a Nate Silver 25% chance of winning to a 13% chance of winning from Sept 17 to Oct 4.  It took 16 days for that 12% dip to happen despite this being the scandal du jour of 2012.

              When Obama had a subdued, mellowed-out, energetically lousy debate performance on October 3, it was as though....the, uhh, sky fell?  YES. Obama went from an 87% chance of winning to a low point of 61% from October 4 to October 12.  A 26% drop, and it took just 8 days.

              In other words, Obama tanked twice as much in half the time.  Twice as much in half the time.  And to bounce back, he had to be twice as good to get, what now, half the credit?

              Hmmmmmmm....where have I heard THAT before?

              Follow me on Twitter: @THTBAW. I crush trolls with truth, boredom with snark, and ignorance with links.

              by therehastobeaway on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 05:40:57 AM PDT

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