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View Diary: Iowa Early Voting Update, 11/2/12 (24 comments)

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  •  Do we know how the Indep vote is going? nt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FightingRegistrar, kathyjoe1

    I fall down, I get up, I keep dancing.

    by DamselleFly on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:58:37 AM PDT

    •  Poll-driven number (0+ / 0-)

      -if I recall correctly.  Guess they try to compare apples to apples (polls vs hard numbers of ballots that are non-party).

      It's about time I got off my lazy butt and do something...

      by NoStampTax on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:42:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Do we know how the Indep vote is going (0+ / 0-)

      My question, also.  It seems to me like everyone assumes that all Democrats are voting for Pres Obama.
      I hope that assumption is correct, but is it realistic?  Are there any hard facts on how many votes have been registered for either candidate?

      Hold the Vision - Trust the Process OBAMA/BIDEN 2012

      by kathyjoe1 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:28:11 AM PDT

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      •  here's what the Rs are hanging their hats on... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DamselleFly

        articlethis morning in the National Review (sorry, important bits below if you don't want to link to it).  They look a the same early vote numbers by party, then have this to say about the independent vote:

        How have the no party/other crowd split? The University of Iowa poll has Obama leading among independents, 41.9 percent to 40.2 percent — yes, those seem low to me, too. The Marist poll in Iowa found “Obama has a 21 point lead among Independent voters who plan to cast an early ballot, while Romney is up 9 points among independents who plan to vote on Election Day.” Let’s give Obama a 60–40 split in the no party or other (although some undoubtedly are voting third party) and give him a 27,000-vote advantage in the independents.

        That gives Obama an 89,000-vote advantage in the early vote; as noted above, the Romney campaign thinks they have about 87,000 more “high-propensity voters” than the Democrats do. That looks like a really close race . . . until you get to the independents who haven’t voted early, where Romney leads by 9 in Marist (let’s say 54–45).

        We don’t know how many Iowa independents will vote on Election Day, but we know 1.5 million people voted in Iowa in 2008, and 33 percent were independent, according to the exit polls, so we’re looking at roughly 500,000 independent/no party/third party voters in the state. We also know that 26.1 percent of the 675,402 early voters in 2008 were no party or other party — 176,280. In other words, in 2008, about 323,000 independents voted on Election Day instead of voting early.

        If Romney has a lead of 9 points among independents, he wins. The only question is by how many votes. If independent turnout on Election Day is 50 percent of 2008, Romney wins by 14,000 votes. If it’s 70 percent of 2008, he wins by 20,000 votes. If it’s 90 percent, he wins by 26,000 votes.

        •  Numbers make my head spin (0+ / 0-)

          Thank you for that info.  But how many of those Ind. voters voted for the President in 2008?  I think its still hard to call Iowa, but again I'm not a numbers person.

          Hold the Vision - Trust the Process OBAMA/BIDEN 2012

          by kathyjoe1 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:47:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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