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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 11/2 (afternoon edition) (153 comments)

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  •  I did Senate race ratings yesterday (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin, MichaelNY

    I'll do my final House race ratings now. Competitive or semicompetitive seats only, to avoid spending an hour on this:

    AR-04 (D) - Very Likely R

    AZ-01 (D) - Lean D
    AZ-02 (D) - Likely D
    AZ-09 (N) - Tilt D

    CA-03 (D) - Very Likely D
    CA-07 (R) - Lean D
    CA-09 (D) - Likely D
    CA-10 (R) - Tilt D
    CA-18 (O) - Very Likely D
    CA-21 (N) - Lean R
    CA-24 (D) - Likely D
    CA-26 (R) - Likely D
    CA-36 (R) - Lean D
    CA-41 (N) - Very Likely D
    CA-45 (R) - Very Likely R
    CA-52 (R) - Lean D

    CO-03 (R) - Likely R
    CO-04 (R) - Very Likely R
    CO-06 (R) - Lean D
    CO-07 (D) - Very Likely D

    CT-05 (D) - Lean D

    FL-02 (R) - Lean R
    FL-09 (N) - Very Likely D
    FL-10 (R) - Likely R
    FL-13 (R) - Very Likely R
    FL-16 (R) - Safe R
    FL-18 (R) - Tilt D
    FL-22 (N) - Very Likely D
    FL-26 (R) - Very Likely D

    GA-12 (D) - Lean D

    IA-01 (D) - Very Likely D
    IA-02 (D) - Likely D
    IA-03 (S) - Lean R
    IA-04 (R) - Tilt R

    IL-08 (R) - Safe D
    IL-10 (R) - Tilt R
    IL-11 (R) - Lean D
    IL-12 (D) - Lean D
    IL-13 (R) - Tilt D
    IL-17 (R) - Tilt D

    IN-02 (D) - Likely R
    IN-05 (R) - Very Likely R
    IN-08 (R) - Lean R
    IN-09 (R) - Very Likely R

    KY-04 (O) - Safe R
    KY-06 (D) - Likely D

    MA-06 (D) - Very Likely R

    MD-06 (R) - Very Likely D

    MI-01 (R) - Lean D
    MI-03 (R) - Likely R
    MI-11 (O) - Tilt D

    MN-02 (R) - Very Likely R
    MN-06 (R) - Likely R
    MN-08 (R) - Likely D

    MO-04 (R) - Very Likely R

    MT-AL (R) - Very Likely R

    NC-07 (D) - Likely D
    NC-08 (D) - Very Likely R
    NC-11 (D) - Safe R
    NC-13 (N) - Safe R

    ND-AL (R) - Very Likely R

    NE-02 (R) - Lean R

    NH-01 (R) - Lean D
    NH-02 (R) - Lean D

    NJ-03 (R) - Very Likely R
    NJ-10 (O) - Safe D

    NY-01 (D) - Likely D
    NY-11 (R) - Very Likely R
    NY-18 (R) - Likely R
    NY-19 (R) - Likely R
    NY-21 (D) - Likely D
    NY-24 (R) - Likely D
    NY-25 (D) - Very Likely D
    NY-26 (D) - Lean R

    NV-03 (R) - Likely R
    NV-04 (N) - Lean D

    OH-03 (N) - Safe D
    OH-06 (R) - Tilt D
    OH-07 (R) - Very Likely R
    OH-14 (R) - Very Likely R
    OH-16 (S) - Likely D

    OK-02 (D) - Very Likely R

    PA-06 (R) - Very Likely R
    PA-07 (R) - Very Likely R
    PA-08 (R) - Likely R
    PA-12 (D) - Tilt D

    RI-01 (D) - Lean R

    SC-07 (N) - Safe R

    SD-AL (R) - Very Likely R

    TN-04 (R) - Tilt D

    TX-14 (R) - Tilt R
    TX-23 (R) - Tilt D
    TX-25 (N) - Safe R
    TX-33 (N) - Safe D
    TX-34 (N) - Safe D
    TX-36 (N) - Very Likely R

    UT-04 (D) - Likely R

    VA-02 (R) - Very Likely R
    VA-05 (R) - Very Likely R

    WA-01 (O) - Likely D
    WA-05 (R) - Very Likely R
    WA-10 (N) - Safe D

    WI-01 (R) - Very Likely R
    WI-07 (R) - Tilt D
    WI-08 (R) - Likely R

    WV-03 (D) - Very Likely D

    If I am not mistaken, that comes out to 207D-228R.

    I am crossing my fingers for IA-04, TX-14, and RI-01 in particular, which I think could break our way. I'm just not expecting them to right now.

    My closest races on here: IA-04, TN-04, IL-10, MI-11, and FL-18.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 12:58:24 PM PDT

    •  This is all pretty close to what I have (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      A few differences on which seats change, but pretty darn close at the margin.  I believe I'm at D+15 at the moment, was D+14 before that poll came out in GA-12 showing Barrow up by 6.

    •  House (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Your house ratings are identical to what I have in numerical totals. I have 219REP-193DEM-23Tossup, and my no-tossups ratings are 228REP-207DEM (Dem net +14)

      Interestingly, we take fairly different paths to get there. The non-safe seats I currently have are:

      AL-04 - Likely R

      AR-01 - Likely R
      AR-04 - Likely R

      AZ-01 - Likely D
      AZ-02 - Likely D
      AZ-09 - Likely D

      CA-03 - Likely D
      CA-07 - Tossup (R with no tossups)
      CA-09 - Lean D
      CA-10 - Lean R
      CA-21 - Likely R
      CA-24 - Likely D
      CA-26 - Tossup (D with no tossups)
      CA-36 - Lean D
      CA-41 - Tossup (D with no tossups)
      CA-47 - Lean D
      CA-52 - Lean D

      CO-03 - Tossup (D with no tossups)
      CO-04 - Likely R
      CO-06 - Lean R
      CO-07 - Likely D

      CT-05 - Tossup (R with no tossups)

      FL-02 - Lean R
      FL-10 - Tossup (R with no tossups)
      FL-13 - Likely R
      FL-18 - Tossup (D with no tossups)
      FL-22 - Lean D
      FL-26 - Likely D

      GA-12 - Tossup (D with no tossups)

      IA-01 - Likely D
      IA-02 - Likely D
      IA-03 - Tossup (R with no tossups)
      IA-04 - Lean R

      ID-02 - Likely R

      IL-08 - Likely D
      IL-10 - Tossup (D with no tossups)
      IL-11 - Lean D
      IL-12 - Lean D
      IL-13 - Tossup (D with no tossups)
      IL-17 - Tossup (D with no tossups)

      IN-02 - Lean R
      IN-05 - Lean R
      IN-06 - Likely R
      IN-08 - Lean R
      IN-09 - Likely R

      KY-06 - Likely D

      MA-06 - Lean R

      MD-06 - Likely D

      ME-02 - Likely D

      MI-01 - Lean D
      MI-03 - Lean R
      MI-11 - Lean R

      MN-02 - Likely R
      MN-06 - Lean R
      MN-08 - Lean D

      MO-04 - Likely R

      MT-AL - Lean R

      NC-06 - Likely R
      NC-07 - Likely D
      NC-08 - Lean R
      NC-09 - Likely R
      NC-10 - Likely R
      NC-11 - Lean R

      ND-AL - Likely R

      NE-02 - Lean R
      NH-01 - Tossup (R with no tossups)
      NH-02 - Tossup (D with no tossups)

      NJ-03 - Lean R
      NJ-07 - Likely R

      NV-03 - Tossup (R with no tossups)
      NV-04 - Tossup (D with no tossups)

      NY-01 - Likely D
      NY-11 - Lean R
      NY-17 - Likely D
      NY-18 - Likely R
      NY-19 - Lean R
      NY-21 - Likely D
      NY-23 - Lean R
      NY-24 - Lean D
      NY-25 - Likely D
      NY-27 - Tossup (D with no tossups)

      OH-06 - Tossup (D with no tossups)
      OH-10 - Likely R
      OH-16 - Tossup (D with no tossups)

      OK-02 - Lean R

      PA-03 - Likely R
      PA-06 - Likely R
      PA-08 - Likely R
      PA-12 - Tossup (R with no tossups)
      PA-18 - Lean R

      RI-01 - Lean D

      SD-AL - Lean R

      TN-04 - Lean D

      TX-14 - Tossup (D with no tossups)
      TX-23 - Tossup (D with no tossups)
      TX-35 - Likely D

      UT-02 - Likely R
      UT-04 - Tossup (R with no tossups)

      VA-02 - Lean R
      VA-05 - Likely R

      WA-01 - Lean D

      WI-01 - Likely
      WI-07 - Lean R
      WI-08 - Likely R

      WV-03 - Likely D

      The closest races are CO-03, NV-03, OH-06, PA-12, and TX-14. My number one race I hope Democrats pull out is MA-06.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 02:38:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nice to see people up on TN-04 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jlgarsh, MichaelNY

        Let's hope that the perverted medicine of Dr. Desjarlais is enough to turn back the clock here.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:41:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  What makes you think RI-01 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is Lean R?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 08:25:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That unanswered Republican internal... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Showing Doheny up, as well as the sudden influx of national party spending.

        When the NRSC and DSCC dove into Arizona, I knew Rep. Flake was in trouble. Similarly, I know Rep. Cicilline is in trouble.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:49:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  National spending (0+ / 0-)

          would indicate Toss-up more than anything.

          and we trust Republican internal polls? really? paging DCCyclone, please give us your usual spiel about internals - it is sorely needed here.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:16:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

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