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View Diary: BOOM! OH: O+6 (NBC/WSJ/Marist) (233 comments)

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  •  According to Rove... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kareylou

    The polls are all overestimating Democratic turnout.

    His article seems compelling. I know he's probably just desperately spinning, but I'd love to see an analyst like Poblano (AKA Nate Silver) address these claims of Bush's brain.

    -8.88, -9.59 In the practice of tolerance, one's enemy is the best teacher. -Tenzin Gyatso, H.H. the Dalai Lama

    by BobSoperJr on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:35:33 PM PDT

    •  Assuming NBC isn't "correcting" the data (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BobSoperJr

      to account for a D+9 sample size, than like I posted about 4 comments above yours... The Republicans do have a point here.  The 2008 exit polls showed Ohio +8D and it is questionable whether or not that will be matched this go around.

      The cold water to their arguement though on this particular poll is you can cut the party advantage on this poll in half to D+4.5 (closer to 2004 exit-polls) and Obama is still up 3%.  

      •  Why... (0+ / 0-)

        do so many of the pollsters seem to be oversampling Democratic voters?

        -8.88, -9.59 In the practice of tolerance, one's enemy is the best teacher. -Tenzin Gyatso, H.H. the Dalai Lama

        by BobSoperJr on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:52:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There are tens of millions more registered D's (0+ / 0-)

          nationwide than R's.  Go figure.  Party self-identification is fluid and is a finding of a poll, not a preset category.  More people are telling pollsters they currently identify as Democrats than Republicans because more people are identifying as Democrats than Republicans, just as they always have.  It's not a sampling error.    

        •  They don't sample Democrats (0+ / 0-)

          They sample people, who tell them they're Democrats. In Ohio nobody evens knows if you're a Democrat. No party registration.

          They call a person. They ask who they are voting fir. They ask their party preference. Both are poll outcomes.

          That's why Republicans are full of shit on this. And why they're scared, because they've trashed their brand so bad.

          A society is judged by how well it cares for those in the dawn of life, the children. By how well it cares for those in the twilight of life, the elderly. And, by how well it cares for those on the edge of life; the poor, the sick, and the disabled.

          by BobBlueMass on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:33:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  We've been over this a million times (4+ / 0-)

        Good pollsters don't weight for party ID. You dont know what the electorate will look like. It very well may be D+10. Obama was campaigning in red counties in Ohio today. He's probably confident he can win there.

      •  Good pollsters don't weight for party ID (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MBishop1, badlands, BobBlueMass

        They weight on immutable characteristics like demographic data.  What Rove doesn't understand is that fewer people ID themselves as Republicans and many moderate indies are identifying as Democrats because the tea party extremism has made it an inhospitable home for all but the kool-aid drinkers.

        Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

        by khyber900 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 11:53:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  This is not the thread for hand-wringing. (0+ / 0-)

        Everyone Chill the fuck out! I got this - unknown but credited to Barack Obama

        by natedogg265 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:49:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Party ID is fluid.. (7+ / 0-)

      Many people have commented and analyzed the polling 'concerns' from the right many times. Party ID is very fluid. Voters and more specifically soft party identifiers switch from Independent to Democrat/Republican and back many times for various reasons. Embarrassment, party losing, etc..

      Plus, a lot of Republicans are identifying at Independent these days. Teabaggers, libertarians and plain old Republicans who are embarassed of the current incarnation of the party.

      This is Rove being Rove and playing with his 'math'. This man is about to waste over a billion dollars of his donors money...I'd be grasping at anything too if within 3 days I have to explain what happened to all that money.

      "There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why... I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?" - Robert Kennedy

      by AlexcSinger on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 11:06:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  the core of Rove's argument is that turnout this (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, saxoman1

      time will be like 04 (the only time in our lives that R and D turnout have been equal) rather than 08 (which was D +10).   He's not even arguing that turnout might be somewhere in between these two -- no, Karl uses Gallup's polling from last week to argue that turnout will actually be R +1, even better than 2010.   This is a total fantasy, as Rove of all people certainly knows, and as he'd have to admit if he looked at any polling other than Gallup.  There may be strong parallels with 04, but this time the incumbent with approvals just over 50 (and climbing) is a D, and the challenger is an R.  

      Rove's article btw was published on the 31st; I'm not sure even he would make it 3 days later based on polling since then.  In any case, ask the Mittens campaign if they think they're winning in OH...

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