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View Diary: BOOM! OH: O+6 (NBC/WSJ/Marist) (233 comments)

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  •  Assuming NBC isn't "correcting" the data (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    to account for a D+9 sample size, than like I posted about 4 comments above yours... The Republicans do have a point here.  The 2008 exit polls showed Ohio +8D and it is questionable whether or not that will be matched this go around.

    The cold water to their arguement though on this particular poll is you can cut the party advantage on this poll in half to D+4.5 (closer to 2004 exit-polls) and Obama is still up 3%.  

    •  Why... (0+ / 0-)

      do so many of the pollsters seem to be oversampling Democratic voters?

      -8.88, -9.59 In the practice of tolerance, one's enemy is the best teacher. -Tenzin Gyatso, H.H. the Dalai Lama

      by BobSoperJr on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:52:14 PM PDT

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      •  There are tens of millions more registered D's (0+ / 0-)

        nationwide than R's.  Go figure.  Party self-identification is fluid and is a finding of a poll, not a preset category.  More people are telling pollsters they currently identify as Democrats than Republicans because more people are identifying as Democrats than Republicans, just as they always have.  It's not a sampling error.    

      •  They don't sample Democrats (0+ / 0-)

        They sample people, who tell them they're Democrats. In Ohio nobody evens knows if you're a Democrat. No party registration.

        They call a person. They ask who they are voting fir. They ask their party preference. Both are poll outcomes.

        That's why Republicans are full of shit on this. And why they're scared, because they've trashed their brand so bad.

        A society is judged by how well it cares for those in the dawn of life, the children. By how well it cares for those in the twilight of life, the elderly. And, by how well it cares for those on the edge of life; the poor, the sick, and the disabled.

        by BobBlueMass on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 05:33:25 AM PDT

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    •  We've been over this a million times (4+ / 0-)

      Good pollsters don't weight for party ID. You dont know what the electorate will look like. It very well may be D+10. Obama was campaigning in red counties in Ohio today. He's probably confident he can win there.

    •  Good pollsters don't weight for party ID (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MBishop1, badlands, BobBlueMass

      They weight on immutable characteristics like demographic data.  What Rove doesn't understand is that fewer people ID themselves as Republicans and many moderate indies are identifying as Democrats because the tea party extremism has made it an inhospitable home for all but the kool-aid drinkers.

      Alternative rock with something to say:

      by khyber900 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 11:53:20 PM PDT

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    •  This is not the thread for hand-wringing. (0+ / 0-)

      Everyone Chill the fuck out! I got this - unknown but credited to Barack Obama

      by natedogg265 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 04:49:42 AM PDT

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