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View Diary: GREAT Nevada early voting news! (10 comments)

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  •  Right - it's a given that Berkley will outperform (2+ / 0-)
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    Supavash, JBraden

    the polling by some significant margin, but she'll need a pretty solid miss again, given her 3.5 point deficit in the RCP average.  I'd love it if this could be a total repeat of 2010, but I don't think she can quite pull off what Harry Reid did.  Still, my instinct is that, similar to Obama, she'll outperform by around 5 points to pull out a 48-47 victory.  Jon Ralston also thinks this one will be down to the wire.

    I had Donnelly/Mourdock as one of the closest races pre-"rape pregnancies are a gift from God", but the Howey poll confirmed my suspicions, and I believe Donnelly will win by a decent mid single-digit margin.  It's looking like the Libertarian will get a decent anti-Mourdock protest vote.

    Tester is a reasonable call too for closest Senate race, but I think Rehberg has just run such a bad campaign that Tester will overcome any possible Romney coattails and take the race by narrow but decent 2-3 point margin.

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