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View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Call, Knock, and Don't Forget to Vote Edition (151 comments)

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  •  This is depressing. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    auditor

    Michael P. McDonald wrote a piece showing GOP is still outperforming Dems in absentee ballots:

    Both figurative and literally, registered Democrats are leaving requested mail ballots on the table. Democrats are returning the mail ballots at a lower rate than Republicans, leading to wide disparities among the ballots that have been cast compared to the ballots that are still sitting on kitchen tables across the country.

    Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

    by Micheline on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:39:34 AM PST

    •  comparison to 2008? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IM, wishingwell

      These numbers are hard to measure without a proportional comparison to 2008. As Ralston noted regarding Nevada, while Republicans are performing much better than 2008, it will take a lot more to close the 12% margin of victory from 2008.

    •  "Absentee" isn't the same as "Early" (10+ / 0-)

      Growing up in Virginia, I learned early that the GOP had heavily institutionalized Absentee Ballot participation. They had a low tech operation designed to shepherd ballots to the process, simply asked the local registrar how many ABs in total had been returned at some designated day or days prior to election day, assumed the overwhelming number of those were "their" votes, then had a team of people work the phones to follow up on their "known frequent AB users." I'm sure their tracking is much more precise now, but the point is AB has been in their "DNA" for a very long time.

      In most OfA operations, the focus is on getting supporters to Vote EARLY, in person. Absentee balloting leaves too much to chance, as McDonald correctly points out. Some states we have less leeway: my current state (MI)) and my home state (VA) don't have "no excuse early voting" but many larger cities and counties dominated by Democratic officials have early voting mechanisms provided you affirm that voting on Election Day "may be problematic" for you. (As I suggested my nephew, who lives in one city in VA and works in an adjacent one, being "out of town" on election day doesn't mean out of town ALL DAY or that it has to be "considerable distance" away.)

      My better half had to vote AB this year, and I went IN PERSON to the courthouse to get her application, delivered it IN PERSON, and after her ballot came in the mail and she filled it out, delivered it IN PERSON to the courthouse and didn't leave until I saw the security envelope time stamped and placed in the appropriate box.

      My daughter registered for the first time this year, and in Michigan first time voters must vote in person (a law passed by our GOP dominated legislature to hinder participation by college students) so for the first time in quite a while I am voting in person on November with her in case there is a GOP vote challenger present.

      This year, I'm leaving nothing to chance.

      When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:15:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, but Dems are beating Repubs (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Egalitare, One Opinion

      in early voting numbers.

      More than 27 million people already have voted in 34 states and the District of Columbia. No votes will be counted until Election Day but several battleground states are releasing the party affiliation of people who have voted early.

      So far, Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio – five states that could decide the election, if they voted the same way. Republicans have the edge in Colorado, which Obama won in 2008.

      Obama dominated early voting in 2008, building up such big leads in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina that he won each state despite losing the Election Day vote, according to voting data compiled by The Associated Press.

      The numbers are there by state, but here's an interesting blurb from NC (that many pollsters are counting as "lean Republican"):
      North Carolina

      About 2.5 million people have voted, and 48 percent of them were Democrats and 32 percent of them were Republicans. Four years ago at this time, Democrats had a slightly larger lead over Republicans, and Obama won the early vote by 11 percentage points.

      Obama lost the Election Day Vote by 17 percentage points in 2008. But the early vote was much bigger than the Election Day vote, resulting in Obama's narrow win.

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:44:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  you know, with all the GOP shenanigans (4+ / 0-)

      many dems may be deciding that they need to vote IN PERSON.

      I requested an absentee ballot for my home state of FL because I am in MD and will not be in FL on November 6.

      But when I returned it, you know, I didn't just slap 65 cents on the envelope. I wet to the post office, grabbed a priority mail envelope, requested a signature on delivery and got a tracking number. It cost me $7. Why? because I wanted to AMKE SURE my vote was delivered.

      THEN two days after the delivery date, I CALLED THE SOE's office and asked them if they'd received my ballot, and whether there were any problems and would I need to resubmit for any reason and was my ballot counted.

      I'm sayin.  People may not feel comfortable submitting an absentee ballot this time around. I know I myself went above and beyond to make sure mine got there and was actually counted. I suspect I am not alone in this.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:53:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh and one other thing: (0+ / 0-)

      in 2008 I requested an absentee ballot even though I was living in FL at the time. In FL you don't need a reason to request an absentee ballot.

      Anyway, I got the ballot in the mail and because I was so busy working with the local campaign, I never returned it. What I did instead was delivery it AT MY POLLING STATION on voting day morning. They marked me off and everything was fine.

      Some people may be choosing to do that as well.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:56:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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