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View Diary: A supposedly objective take on Nate Silver; worth the read (56 comments)

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  •  This is profoundly uninteresting. (0+ / 0-)

    He's just a guy who makes educated guesses through wholly conventional methods. It was ridiculous to attach him to a major newspaper and it's ridiculous to attack or defend him.  

    You know, I sometimes think if I could see, I'd be kicking a lot of ass. -Stevie Wonder at the Glastonbury Festival, 2010

    by Rich in PA on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 09:55:54 AM PST

    •  I disagree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dustb, kyril

      Conventional or not, Silver was the one who actually did it and did it well in a media environment that was knee deep in BS. Holding that against him is like being mad at the guy who invented that singing fish. Yeah, maybe you could have done it too, but you didn't.

      Now, as for the media, if the actual media made an attempt to actually make rational conclusions based on empirical data, there never would have been an opening for someone like Silver. But the media is awful and Silver's presence most certainly improves it.

      Is he one of the great geniuses of our time? Obviously not.

      Does his analysis deserve NYT ink more than Bill Kristol, Maureen Dowd and the vast, vast majority of pundits that dominate our national conservation? Absolutely.

      •  I don't see what we gain by drowning... (0+ / 0-)

        ...in predictions and (now) letting them get a foothold in our newspapers.  "As of today" predictions are meaningless because in electoral politics there is only one today that matters.  Silver can be a fine fellow and the best at what he does but I think lionizing what he does further diminishes our politics.  

        You know, I sometimes think if I could see, I'd be kicking a lot of ass. -Stevie Wonder at the Glastonbury Festival, 2010

        by Rich in PA on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:14:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  we gain more knowledge of the situation (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dustb

          than we would get from a single in-house poll or a legion of BS-twirling pundits.

          If you don't care to know, fine for you, but I like to have a sense of where things stand "on a single day."

        •  I would say that he "forecasts", not "predicts" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          grover

          A prediction is based on conventional wisdom, gut feeling, etc., and is the assertion that something will happen. A forecast looks at the available science and data, and gives a likelihood that something will happen. The local weatherperson doesn't predict the weather, but interprets the data. So does Silver, who says the likelihood that a certain set of results will occur based on current information.

          "Mitt Romney isn't a vulture capitalist: vultures only eat things that are dead." -S. Colbert

          by newinfluence on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 11:43:23 AM PST

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    •  The reason he is attached to a major newspaper (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dustb, Stroszek, kyril, grover

      is that people are interested in what he has to say. He is a clear step up from the news media that just pitch their own polls, quote Gallup and Rasmussen.

      "You can die for Freedom, you just can't exercise it"

      by shmuelman on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:12:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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