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View Diary: Predictions and Key Counties for Election Night (21 comments)

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    NV: I agree, that's his base.  Shelley can with by only winning Clark.

    CO: Arapahoe was slightly more than 2 points bluer than the state in 2008; I only put counties that were within two points or three if there's a clear trend.  I think Arapahoe should stay light blue.  Speaking of Hispanic Counties, Conejos County is almost entirely Hispanic or Mormon.  So it may trend red despite being very Hispanic, but don't worry about it.

    NM/TX: McCain's smallest NM county victory was 9 points.  There's nothing that could flip.  TX potentially has Hudspeth (McCain 51-48), but I'm not sure what the demographics there are.

    FL: Duval isn't going to flip.

    PA: Pike should get bluer, but Obama lost it by four.  It would have to have a very large blue trend (4 PVI points if my math is right) to flip, which seems unlikely.

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:34:24 PM PST

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    •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
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      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      Thanks for checking on New Mexico, we'll see about Hudspeth.

      Guess it's just not a good enough year to flip Duval and Pike. Would be nice though.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:22:55 AM PST

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