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View Diary: SURVEY USA HAS OBAMA +5 IN OHIO (43 comments)

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  •  It looks like Republcans turned out... (1+ / 0-)
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    ...for early voting.  

    Which is a good thing for us.  Because they won't have enough votes to bank on election day.  

    •  meaning what? (eom) (0+ / 0-)
      •  They cannabalized their typical election day (1+ / 0-)
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        voters and sent them out early.  they won't be there on election day.  

        •  But could the same be said of us (0+ / 0-)

          in places like NC?

          •  I will elaborate... (4+ / 0-)
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            Supavash, PorridgeGun, Vicky, pademocrat

            ...Survey USA's is moving towards Obama despite the Republican claims of major early voting gains.  

            Survey USA is a good pollster and they provide cross tabs.  Those cross tabs show that they are carefully tracking voters who have voted already, intend to vote early and plan on voting on election day.  

            Movement towards Obama takes into account early voting, but also those who intend to vote on election day.  The movement suggests that Obama is turning out the "sporadic" voters that they claim.  

            On the other hand, if R's were turning out "sporadic " voters early, there would be movement towards Romney.  

            Of course, you have to trust SUSA's, which I do.  I consider them the gold standard.

            •  Republicans didn't make major early voting gains (0+ / 0-)

              They did slightly better than McCain... which is still pretty awful.

              As I said in another diary, this notion that Dems have some natural right to a massive early voting lead is absurd. We have it because we're kicking their ass on the ground in Ohio... and that's not the case in every state.

              The fact that they're pointing to marginal increases in early voting in McCain counties as opposed to, say, a 50/50 tie among early voters is a good indication of how poorly they've done in early voting.

          •  We have different voter footprints (3+ / 0-)

            Most unlikely voters are Democrats.  Our job is to get them out to the polls somehow.

            The Republicans usually show up.  Their goal is to try to flip weak blue votes.

            That's why we focus on ground game and they focus on ads.

            But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

            by thezzyzx on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 10:55:22 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  yes, here in disaster-strewn NJ (0+ / 0-)

              I just got my neighbors to vote for Obama; they weren't going to vote at all, I heard the three of them talking, they were tired, cutting down trees and such, and half the people don't havepower, I doubt we can even vote, the hell with it etc. I jumpred right in ( i was gassing my car with a gas can, something we are getting good at here ) and told them Rmoney's medicare plans  etc and can you believe people still didn't know this? I then told them they could go vote down at the county office today iof they want, or by email because if you don't have power and your are staying elsewhere, you are displaced. Alosa, our local polls will be open, and Christie has ordered generators for polling places and theuse of national guard trucks as polling locations. he's a thug, but we don't do voter suppression here in NJ; we want people to vote.

          •  GOP normally has a higher % turnout (1+ / 0-)
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            So their early GOTV efforts have a smaller potential effect. Their voters were going to vote no matter what. The Dems on the other had have a lower turnout rate which is why the LV numbers on poll are generally worse than the RV for Dems.

            On Average the Dems are bringing out more people that were registered but might not have voted than the GOP.

            •  not necessarily true, the RV/LV split favored GOP (0+ / 0-)

              in 2004. In the end, it meant "undecideds broke for Bush"... but what really happened is that more RVs started expressing their intent to vote as election day approached. That's what we're seeing in the polls right now.

              •  It does appear the GOP votes at a higher % (0+ / 0-)

                I just did a quick down and dirty calculation from the 2008 Ohio Presidential Election result. I wanted to know what was the voting percent for the most Democratic and most Republican precincts.

                Precincts where one candidate wins at least 75% of the vote
                * McCain wins: 78% of registered voters voted
                * Obama wins: 57% of registered voters voted

                So yes it dos indeed appear that the Dems have more room for improvement than the GOP.

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