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View Diary: SURVEY USA HAS OBAMA +5 IN OHIO (43 comments)

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  •  GOP normally has a higher % turnout (1+ / 0-)
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    So their early GOTV efforts have a smaller potential effect. Their voters were going to vote no matter what. The Dems on the other had have a lower turnout rate which is why the LV numbers on poll are generally worse than the RV for Dems.

    On Average the Dems are bringing out more people that were registered but might not have voted than the GOP.

    •  not necessarily true, the RV/LV split favored GOP (0+ / 0-)

      in 2004. In the end, it meant "undecideds broke for Bush"... but what really happened is that more RVs started expressing their intent to vote as election day approached. That's what we're seeing in the polls right now.

      •  It does appear the GOP votes at a higher % (0+ / 0-)

        I just did a quick down and dirty calculation from the 2008 Ohio Presidential Election result. I wanted to know what was the voting percent for the most Democratic and most Republican precincts.

        Precincts where one candidate wins at least 75% of the vote
        * McCain wins: 78% of registered voters voted
        * Obama wins: 57% of registered voters voted

        So yes it dos indeed appear that the Dems have more room for improvement than the GOP.

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