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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Down to 'the only poll that counts' (294 comments)

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  •  it's all about GOTV in PA; we do that, we win (7+ / 0-)

    I spoke w/ the local OFA office in my deep red county. She sounded a little freaked out about PA, but this is the western Pennsyltucky area. We're going to see our margin in this area drop, but, we GOTV, we'll turnout Dems in Pittsburgh to throw in with the SE corner, where we'll get the margin that puts us over the top.

    In 2010, we lost to Pat Toomey by 70,000, when we have a million voter advantage. We just didn't show up in a mid-term election. Never should have happened.

    Four years ago, in the general, we increased our turnout by 300,000, from 2.9 million ('04) to 3.2 million, and beat McCain by 600,000 votes. When Casey was elected in 2006, he received 2.4 million, or 600,000 more votes than Sestak did in '10. In the year of the Teabagger, 2010, Toomey could only turnout 228,000, which is almost half a million off from the 2.6 million Pennsylvanians who voted McCain in '08. It was kind of like 1994, when Wofford barely lost to Rick Santorum (GOP wave year of '92). Four years later, Bill Clinton carried PA by 400,000 votes over George H.W. Bush, so there is a tendency for PA Dems to stay home in mid-term elections.

    The highest turnout the PA GOP has ever had is 2004 with 2.7 million. And we beat 'em by 200,000. In the last twenty years of presidential elections, we've had a very steady 200,000-500,000 vote margin on election day. For Romney to win here, we'd have to stay home like we did in '10 and '94 or Romney has to pick up a whole hell of a lot of votes.

    We have the votes. We just need to make sure they show up.

    Now, he's in Pittsburgh tomorrow. He was in Morrisville at the far eastern end of the state, along the New Jersey border. I think they know that they can't get many more votes out of the "T" (or what some of us call Pennsyltucky), at least not nearly enough to put him over the top. According to the Post-Gazette, Romney is making a quick stop at PGH International airport, so no traffic trickery and he's not doing what Bush-Cheney did in '04, which was make repeated visits to the deep red parts of the state. They made a concerted effort to flip PA, much more intensive than Romney, and they still couldn't do it.

    For Mitt to win here, he has to do considerably better than the high watermark of 2004, when the GOP still lost by 200,000 votes. If Dems turnout at historical rates for presidential elections since 1992 (which as been consistent), that problem means Romney needs to get very, very close to 3 million voters, I think (unless we don't show up, so there's absolutely no good reason for us to lose this state).

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