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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections 2012 downballot liveblog thread #9 (181 comments)

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  •  somehow 5 counties (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades, jj32, tietack

    have flipped from McCain to Obama.

    Franklin, KY
    Early, GA
    Nash, NC
    Darlington, SC
    Warren, NY

    Explanations?

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:14:55 PM PST

    •  I'm pretty sure (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, sulthernao

      that Warren County, NY voted for Obama.

      All the rest were very narrow McCain wins.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), new ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:18:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  McCain won it by 6 votes last time (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But what I'm asking is what is causing the Dem PVI trend.  Because Obama is doing about two pints worse, the counties must be trending blue.  But apart from Warren, the 5 here don't seem to fit the counties we generally think of as blue-trending.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:19:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  McCain did not win it by 6 votes last time (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, sulthernao

          Obama received 16,281 votes and McCain got 15,429 votes in 2008. That translates into an 852-vote win for Obama in Warren County in 2008.

          Anyway, about the trend, Early, Nash, and Darlington may have been because of more blacks voting. Franklin (KY) has the state capital of Frankfort, so state workers might have swung.

          (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), new ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

          by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:26:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  then the NYT must be wrong. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:30:03 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Two pints (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          Are you having some ale right about now? :-)

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:28:40 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I don't know, but I do know that (0+ / 0-)

      Darlington County is the name of a Bruce Springsteen song,  who of course campaigned hard with Obama at the end.  Just a coincidence, but a pretty cool one.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:21:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The first thing I'd check is new voter ethnicities (0+ / 0-)

      as a proportion of growth in each of these counties, i.e. Hispanics, African Americans, high-tech whites.

      I hope; therefore, I can live.

      by tietack on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:27:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I can guarantee (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Chachy

        none of the five have high tech Whites.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:30:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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