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View Diary: Can we give Nate Silver his due? (268 comments)

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  •  Nate silver is billy beane (5+ / 0-)

    And the pundits at places like politico are like those baseball scouts who scoffed at the idea that data could be collected and understood and used to make accurate predictions of the future

    •  Um, no. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Buzzer, Sklz711

      Nate Silver is Bill James. Paul DePodesta. Eric Walker. He is a statistician.

      Billy Beane was a failed ballplayer who had been predicted by traditional scouting to be a star. He hired on as a scout when his playing days were done and eventually advanced to the front office.

      As general manager of the Oakland A's, Beane gave the statisticians a chance to prove their stuff. He is not himself a statistician.

      For that matter, Beane wasn't even the first Oakland GM to use sabremetrics in player evaluation. That honor goes to his predecessor, Sandy Alderson.

      Just because you're not a drummer doesn't mean that you don't have to keep time. -- T. Monk

      by susanala on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 04:25:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bill James... (0+ / 0-)

           ...was severely resisted by the baseball establishment when he first emerged with his Abstracts, as well. And the more accurate he would get, the more they resisted him.

            As we see with Paul Krugman as well, to the established power structures, being right is less important than parroting the herd's conventional wisdom.


        "Le ciel est bleu, l'enfer est rouge."

        by Buzzer on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 06:09:38 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He's actually both (0+ / 0-)

        he is the GM and the statisitiion. Its his blog and his work product. He is the one who got himself noticed, promoted himself etc etc.

        You can parse it how you want, but you understand the analogy.

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