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View Diary: Can we give Nate Silver his due? (268 comments)

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  •  He does more than simply aggregate (3+ / 0-)
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    molunkusmol, susanala, Sklz711

    That's a huge misconception of Silver's methodology.  He has a finely tuned, highly sophisticated statistical model that synthesizes polling data into a whole that is more valuable than the sum of its parts.  

    Plus, can't we give shout-outs to both Silver and the journalists you speak of?  

    "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

    by Subterranean on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 01:37:36 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  We have a winner! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sklz711

      Journalists (and intrepid citizens, such as the one who gave us the 47%  video) can affect people's opinions. Nate Silver's model describes how much and in which direction those opinions are moving, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting the election outcome. Those are two different things, and both are useful.

      I work in public health research so I am in your corner on modeling versus aggregation. Anybody with time available can aggregate published data. Meta-analysis is a whole different ball of wax than that.

      Someone observed up-thread that there is an outfit doing basic aggregation. They don't come up with Silver's results. That's because they don't do the mental hard labor required for modeling, which involves far more than simple arithmetic.

      Just because you're not a drummer doesn't mean that you don't have to keep time. -- T. Monk

      by susanala on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 03:48:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Who is more accurate: Intrade or Nate Silver? (0+ / 0-)

      On the eve of the election, Intrade had President Obama at 68%.  Silver had him at 92%.

      Given the outcome of the election, who was more accurate?

      Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project. www.hamiltonproject.org

      by PatriciaVa on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 12:14:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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