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View Diary: Can we give Nate Silver his due? (268 comments)

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  •  We have a winner! (1+ / 0-)
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    Journalists (and intrepid citizens, such as the one who gave us the 47%  video) can affect people's opinions. Nate Silver's model describes how much and in which direction those opinions are moving, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting the election outcome. Those are two different things, and both are useful.

    I work in public health research so I am in your corner on modeling versus aggregation. Anybody with time available can aggregate published data. Meta-analysis is a whole different ball of wax than that.

    Someone observed up-thread that there is an outfit doing basic aggregation. They don't come up with Silver's results. That's because they don't do the mental hard labor required for modeling, which involves far more than simple arithmetic.

    Just because you're not a drummer doesn't mean that you don't have to keep time. -- T. Monk

    by susanala on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 03:48:34 AM PST

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