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View Diary: Can we give Nate Silver his due? (268 comments)

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  •  Also PPP and NBC/WSJ destroyed Rasmussen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow, Sklz711, MBishop1

    PPP got EVERY single state right, even home-state NC (they said Romney would win by a hair)

    Their swing state polls:

    NV (Obama +4, he won by 6)
    CO (Obama +6, he won by 4)
    FL (Obama by 1 vote, he won almost that close)
    OH (Obama +5, he'll win by 3)
    VA (Obama +4, he'll win by 3 or 4)
    NC (Romney +.2, he'll win by about 1 or 2)
    WI (Obama +3, he won by 7)
    NH (Obama +2. he won by 5)
    IA (Obama +2, he won by 6)

    And the leaners:

    PA: Obama +6 (he won by 5)
    MN: Obama +8 (he won by 8)
    MI: Obama +6 (he won by 8)

    Rasmussen missed a lot of states:

    FL: Romney +2 (Obama won by 1)
    OH: Tie (Obama will win by 3)
    NC: Romney +6 (Romney will only win by 1 or 2)
    IA: Romney +1 (Obama won by 6)
    WI: Tied (Obama won by 7)
    VA: Romney +2 (Obama will win by 3-4)
    CO: Romney +3 (Obama won by 4)
    NH: They and PPP both underestimated Obama's win
    NV: Obama +2 (He won by 6)

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