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View Diary: Punditz: 34 blown election predictions (242 comments)

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  •  Nate Silver was wrong (1+ / 0-)
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    about almost nothing at all.  He was right on for almost all the races that he crunched.  Heidi Heitkamp's outcome was an outlier: NS gave her only an 8% chance.  I wonder what happened on that one.  

    •  There Were A Few Dozen Races... (1+ / 0-)
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      Eikyu Saha it's not really surprising that an "8% likely" outcome happened in one of them.

      On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

      by stevemb on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 04:33:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Very true. (0+ / 0-)

        That is, after all, how stats work.  Comparing Nate's assessments of margin of error with the outcomes, though, I wonder if even his margins were overestimated.  He proved right almost too often.  

        Voltage Spike gives a good analysis in Native Vote Flipped NC Senate Seat to Dems. Poor polling, late shifting, likely underestimation of Native American vote.  

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