Skip to main content

View Diary: Punditz: 34 blown election predictions (242 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Nate Silver was wrong (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    imnamerican

    about almost nothing at all.  He was right on for almost all the races that he crunched.  Heidi Heitkamp's outcome was an outlier: NS gave her only an 8% chance.  I wonder what happened on that one.  

    •  There Were A Few Dozen Races... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Eikyu Saha

      ...so it's not really surprising that an "8% likely" outcome happened in one of them.

      On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

      by stevemb on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 04:33:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Very true. (0+ / 0-)

        That is, after all, how stats work.  Comparing Nate's assessments of margin of error with the outcomes, though, I wonder if even his margins were overestimated.  He proved right almost too often.  

        Voltage Spike gives a good analysis in Native Vote Flipped NC Senate Seat to Dems. Poor polling, late shifting, likely underestimation of Native American vote.  

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site