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View Diary: Punditz: 34 blown election predictions (242 comments)

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  •  Very true. (0+ / 0-)

    That is, after all, how stats work.  Comparing Nate's assessments of margin of error with the outcomes, though, I wonder if even his margins were overestimated.  He proved right almost too often.  

    Voltage Spike gives a good analysis in Native Vote Flipped NC Senate Seat to Dems. Poor polling, late shifting, likely underestimation of Native American vote.  

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