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View Diary: Twit Watch: Dylan Byers at Politico tries to kiss up to Nate Silver; Silver tells him to take a hike (246 comments)

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  •  Correct (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bob Johnson, renbear, Pluto, dirtfarmer

    but you are comparing apples to oranges. Take your statement about praising the one particular pollster who in this election happened to get it close. Guess what, in previous cycles other pollsters did better. So how do you separate the chaff from the wheat? That's where Nate and his modelling comes into play. And if you still doubt that it produces results you might be interested to learn that Obama's campaign had a room full of quants and their results were the most closely guarded secret that the campaign considered their competitive edge over Romney.

    •  By modelling, do you mean (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Pluto, freelunch

      keeping track of what specific pollsters reported relative to the actual outcome of the election?

      I just peaked at RedState where there are a great many who are trying to reconcile how Rasmussen could have been so off with his polling.      The bullshit pollsters aren't hard to spot.

      "Your diary is a pack of filthy lies." -bronte17

      by Setrak on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 05:11:39 PM PST

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      •  It's more than that (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bob Johnson, Pluto

        The model is basically a simple election simulator that takes polls and uses them to set up a Monte Carlo generator to run millions of simulated elections where each state's outcome is adjusted using poll numbers, pollsters past accuracy, recency of the poll, its political bias etc. It then compiles the results from those mock elections to figure out the percentage of time one candidate prevails over another.

    •  There is much more to look at beyond (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bob Johnson

      ...opinion poll sampling. Not to take anything away from Nate, but I would assume that multiple systems might be incorporated into the mix at the White House.

      For example, I just reviewed a logic model that has predicted the popular vote flawlessly for 150 years, including the 2012 election outcome, which was predicted over a year ago.

      Additionally, it present milestones that might help any campaign plan a strategic victory by focusing their news-drivers. I can see trails of the Obama administration across the system, actually. No numbers involved.

      It must have given the Obama campaign great confidence, as was the case for the Clinton campaign in 1992.

      A child of five would understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five. -- Groucho Marx

      by Pluto on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 05:40:46 PM PST

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