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View Diary: Twit Watch: Dylan Byers at Politico tries to kiss up to Nate Silver; Silver tells him to take a hike (246 comments)

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  •  By modelling, do you mean (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pluto, freelunch

    keeping track of what specific pollsters reported relative to the actual outcome of the election?

    I just peaked at RedState where there are a great many who are trying to reconcile how Rasmussen could have been so off with his polling.      The bullshit pollsters aren't hard to spot.

    "Your diary is a pack of filthy lies." -bronte17

    by Setrak on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 05:11:39 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  It's more than that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bob Johnson, Pluto

      The model is basically a simple election simulator that takes polls and uses them to set up a Monte Carlo generator to run millions of simulated elections where each state's outcome is adjusted using poll numbers, pollsters past accuracy, recency of the poll, its political bias etc. It then compiles the results from those mock elections to figure out the percentage of time one candidate prevails over another.

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