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View Diary: The 2012 polling hall of shame (269 comments)

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  •  Anybody know (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annieli

    what the final Intrade price was for Obama before trading stopped?  (I don't have an account, I'm just curious.)

    You can't spell CRAZY without R-AZ. (and donate to Bill!)

    by rb608 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:36:24 AM PST

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    •  $9.90 or higher (over 99%) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rb608, annieli

      Since it is a futures trading market and not a betting site, they leave the markets open until there is absolute certainty of an outcome.  The electoral vote and popular vote markets are still open.

      If you are interested what the price was just before the election, I seem to remember it bouncing around between %70 and %75 early Tuesday morning.

      Republican motto: " The only thing we have is fear itself."

      by lgrabowski on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:00:36 AM PST

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      •  Uh .... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rb608, annieli, NM Ward Chair

        Whatever else Intrade is or is not, it is not "not a betting site". It is 100% a betting site. Every single contract put or asked is a play, pure and simple.

        To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

        by UntimelyRippd on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:48:02 AM PST

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        •  My company servers (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          annieli, NM Ward Chair

          do not allow me access to the Intrade site:

          Content blocked by your organization

          Reason:

          This Websense category is filtered: Gambling.

          You can't spell CRAZY without R-AZ. (and donate to Bill!)

          by rb608 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:55:37 AM PST

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          •  Berry-Bickers is not a poll (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            rb608, NM Ward Chair

            but neither is Intrade, technically, so I'll jump in here.
            I was scared a few weeks ago when I heard about an electoral vote model from University of Colorado--Boulder (by professors Berry and Bickers). I never bothered to read the details in the pdf but it is based on economics and they claimed it correctly picked the electoral vote winner in the last eight presidential elections.

            So what did it say? Romney 330 to Obama 208 with a margin of error of 28 electoral votes. Kind of missed the mark, didn't they? They forecasted the winner of every swing state wrong except for NC which they got right. Yes, they got their own state of Colorado wrong.

            If anybody finds an article or diary of rules that will become non-rules after this election, please IM me.
            Things like no president since ??? has ever been reelected with unemployment over 7.2%.

        •  I should be more clear (0+ / 0-)

          Yes of course it IS a betting site in that people are wagering money on an outcome just like the oil futures market or something like that.  What I meant is that it is not a traditional betting site with a central bookie covering the bets.  They traditionally close betting at the start of an event.  Futures market type sites allow trading until the event is decided and even for a short period after.  As long as there is someone  willing to cover both sides of the prediction, a bet can be made.  If someone feels that the Columbus Blue Jackets are going to score 6 goals on the Red Wings in the final minute of the game or that space travelers from the planet Kolob will descend and declare Romney president are free to invest in that option with very high odds if they wish until the site admins actually close and pay out the market.

          Republican motto: " The only thing we have is fear itself."

          by lgrabowski on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:17:04 AM PST

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          •  Oh. (0+ / 0-)

            Well, I don't keep up on these things, but I thought that what with the internet and high-tech gambling and stuff, that "standard" betting operations now did indeed continue taking bets all the way through games.

            To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

            by UntimelyRippd on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 04:29:45 PM PST

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