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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Democrats lead in seven of nine uncalled House races (277 comments)

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  •  Too early to declare winners among pollsters (8+ / 0-)

    it is very likely Obama's final margin is at least going to be closer to 3% and it is possible he may exceed it. Sure PPP deserves some kudos, although we saw some spots of weakness for them too this year, but as far as overall rankings are concerned they should wait until much more of the outstanding vote is counted.

    •  Agreed. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lina

      I don't think this election was quite the triumph of predictable polling that some say.  Binary results--who won a state, who lost--sure.  But margins and relative results?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:27:33 AM PST

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      •  That was entirely predictable. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        I said multiple times before the election occurred that the only ways the popular vote would be close, let alone seeing Romney winning it, would be if he ran up the margins in the big states. That didn't happen, because unlike Bush, he didn't do that well with nonwhites. It also helps that in a few of the bigger states, like Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, Obama did much better than Kerry did, which more or less cancelled out the fact that the margins in states like Pennsylvania were closer.

        In fact, I think we might be close to entering a phase where, unless Republicans do really well in the Electoral College and/or with nonwhites, Democrats will usually have the edge in the popular vote.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 08:07:22 AM PST

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    •  I agree. Per pollster.com Obama is at (7+ / 0-)

      50.4% of the vote.  He is very likely to finish at 50.5% or above which would make the final score 51-48.  My own prediction was 51-47-2 so I'd like to be half right;).  

      Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

      by khyber900 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:27:36 AM PST

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    •  Fordham university came out with rankings (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lina, JBraden, CF of Aus

      Although it will be nice when People like Silver give his take on it, as he did in 2010.

      Nate Silver went on the Daily Show last night and apologized (kinda) for missing the ND-Sen race in what was otherwise a flawless prediction night for him.

      •  It's a little absurd that Silver has to apologize (3+ / 0-)

        for making an entirely understandable error while clowns like...well, take your pick amongst right-leaning election guys and mainstream media people will never, ever face scrutiny.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 08:09:21 AM PST

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        •  Simmer down :-) (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NM Ward Chair

          OGGoldy either was being sarcastic or has no sense of humor.  Silver apologized about as much as I apolgize for voting for Obama.  Stewart made fun of him about that because it was the only thing he got wrong.  They were both laughing about the ND thing pretty openly.

          It was all in jest for sure.

          http://www.thedailyshow.com/...

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 08:19:09 AM PST

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          •  Oh, okay. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NM Ward Chair

            Can I take it as a point of pride that one of the co-creators of "The Daily Show" went to my college? I think I can.

            Anyway, from what I've read, Silver was moving an incredible amount of traffic to nytimes.com. Looks like he is in a position of strength.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 08:28:25 AM PST

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          •  It was in jest (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NM Ward Chair, CF of Aus

            And the show was clearly in jest. Silver had an incredibly night. Going 82-83 in terms of presidential states and senate races is remarkable.

    •  Channeling Karl Rove (0+ / 0-)

      I too thought it "premature" for such detail. Also unfair to include dusty polls from NPR and particularly AP.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:59:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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