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View Diary: More than 600,000 AZ votes NOT counted [UPDATE] (160 comments)

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  •  Early and Provisionals so far break for Carmona (22+ / 0-)

    Choice     Polling Place     Early Ballots     Provisional Ballots     Maricopa     Total     Percent
    CARMONA, RICHARD    134,007    211,945    261    408,203    754,416    45.38%
    FLAKE, JEFF    144,472    207,063    184    482,487    834,206    50.18%

    Of Provisionals counted 261 Carmona, 184 Flake
    Of Early Ballots counted 211,945 Carmona, 207,063 Flake

    If the Early ballot margin continues, Carmona could only make up about 10,000 votes from Early ballots and maybe 2000 from provisionals...  not enough...  

    But there are other races (IE AZ-02, maybe some state house races) which could change.

    From Sos website, last update 5 PM 11/7

    However, IMHO the point of elections is to actually count the votes, so lets do it!

    "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

    by biscobosco on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 11:19:17 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Do we know where the few counted provisionals... (6+ / 0-)

      come from?  Or if they're even "real" provisionals, which I thought could never be counted until a little while after the race, as opposed to something else that existed in very limited amounts?

      I know Maricopa County alone has a lot of provisionals, and I was thinking that those might be especially likely to be very heavily Democratic because of the racially polarized Arpaio/Penzone sheriff's race and Republican-dominated county administration-- I would suspect that there may have been a lot of Latino Democratic voters improperly denied the right to vote other than by provisional ballot.  So the provisionals in Maricopa might break much more heavily for Carmona.  But I'm not from Arizona, so perhaps I'm missing something?

      In any event, I agree with you that all the votes should be counted, whether or not it ends up ultimately affecting the result.

      •  Just Some Info (0+ / 0-)

        Hopefully, this link will take you to historical election party id numbers for each county in AZ(be sure to look at the second set of numbers for each county and not the first as the first is for primary and second is for General). I'm unclear if these are overall registration numbers or what the election year turnout numbers were. Either way, I was really surprised to see that Maricopa County only had about 28% registered Dems for 2010 versus about 37% Republican. The rest are Independants. The 2008 numbers were a little better for Dems. From what I looked at, the early balloting numbers coming in look oddly too Republican but  having only lived in Phoenix for 3 years I don't have a good grasp of the politics here yet. To me, the numbers look scarier for AZ-9 than AZ-2. AZ-2 seems like it ought to be about a 2 point win for Barber based on outstanding provisionals and early votes not yet counted. It's unclear to me if the early votes have all been counted since Sec. of State Bennett released a 5pm update today that showed 54,000 early ballots in Pima County still to be counted but the totals of early ballots already showing on his election site show a big number of early votes counted:

        Hope these links came out right. :)

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