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View Diary: More than 600,000 AZ votes NOT counted [UPDATE] (160 comments)

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  •  It's difficult to say right now (2+ / 0-)
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    bontemps2012, libnewsie

    The early ballots and provisional ballots that have been counted lean Carmona, but I don't know if it is enough to get him over the line. It will definitely tighten the race, though.

    •  New registrations in Maricopa voted provisional. (0+ / 0-)

      There's also a requirement to go in and show ID to get this counted.

      HELL, YES !!

      Remember, nobody in the 47% deserves to vote. Ever. And next year that the 99%.

    •  I saw your tentative analysis on this... (1+ / 0-)
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      in your update.  You may want to update the update to note that with the  extremely small sample size of the counted provisional ballots so far, and our lack of knowledge regarding whether those few are in any way a representative sample, there's no way to know if the ones that remain will be even roughly analogous.  

      It seems to me that based on the anecdotal evidence of attempted Latino vote suppression and the background of the Arpaio race, a much higher percentage of the uncounted mass of provisionals, especially in Maricopa, may be potentially valid ballots cast by Latino Democrats.  We'll never know for sure unless people show up with ID in time and have their ballots counted, but I think the provisionals could conceivably break much more heavily for Carmona and Penzone than the small and potentially unrepresentative sample counted so far would indicate.

      •  I've been keeping track of the count and (0+ / 0-)

        the margins are staying roughly the same. It went from 56-39-4 to 57-38-5 on the provisional ballots. the final count is still around 47-49-4.

        •  But have they counted any Maricopa provisionals? (0+ / 0-)

          Or is that all from other places, so far?  

          It's Maricopa county, with the Arpaio race and their history of governmental racism (Arpaio himself even having been sued by USDOJ), where I'm really worried about high Latino disenfranchisement.  A woman I spoke to at the Carmona campaign did say that there were a lot of provisionals from West Phoenix, which I gather is heavily Latino.  With 115,000 provisionals from Maricopa, that alone could swing the race if a high enough percentage are Latino voters improperly forced to resort to provisional ballots.

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