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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 11/8 (450 comments)

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  •  2020 probably won't be bad... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    borodino21

    For redistricting.  

    Keep in mind that:

    1.  It will be a presidential year.
    2.  Latino and Asian voting share will probably be around 2% higher each.
    3.  The white voting share will have fallen.
    4.  The current oldest cohort (Silents - the most conservative) will be dying off in large numbers.  

    If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say we'll have, following 2020:

    Total control in NY
    Split or total control in PA
    Split control in OH
    Split or total control in MI
    Split or total control in WI
    Split or total control in VA
    Split control in FL
    Possible split control in TX

    We'll probably have some role in Arizona, but since they use a commission, it won't matter.  Same for NC, where we'll be able to elect a governor, but they cannot veto, hence the R's will probably stay in control for awhile yet.  

    •  Yeah all we need is some kind of split control (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, borodino21

      whether it's one chamber of a state legislature, or the governor, and the next time redistricting comes up we can force court-drawn maps.  That alone would doom the large GOP edge in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Easily 2 to 3 seats instantly gained per state, with possibilities of more.

    •  I don't see us winning the WI assembly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      that map is absolutely brutal.

    •  Screw that (0+ / 0-)

      After seeing how the house was effectively drawn in a way to prevent a dem majority, I am on the independent redistricting train for all states.  I felt differently about it in CA before it became law, and even voted against it, but the commission has actually been largely successful.  I really don't want to have to worry about who is in the governors office in FL, OH, PA and other big states when redistricting comes around.

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

      by Daman09 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 01:16:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The problem is... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        Not every state has an initiative process.  They are very rare east of the Mississippi.  I just don't see how, without initiatives, you'd get the legislature to agree to castrate itself in terms of redistricting.  Elected officials like drawing their own seats.  

        •  This should be a new democratic policy position (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jncca

          Fair redistricting.  It not only wins then support from good government folks, but also makes the GOP look like the support a broken system.

          If the democratic party jumps on board with this, It wouldn't be hard to see states like NY and NJ get this shit sorted out quickly.

          Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

          by Daman09 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 03:53:40 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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