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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 11/8 (450 comments)

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  •  It's also a question of who our nominee is. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MattTX

    Someone like Warner or Schweitzer could probably compete fairly easily. Someone like Cuomo, maybe not so much.

    All of your concerns are quite sensible, but all of your suggestions can also be applied to Texas, even if it's less so in Texas than in Georgia. The Democratic base is higher in Georgia, but there are probably more unregistered or unmobilized minorities in the state than there are in Georgia. Looks we are thinking similarly, even if you are more skeptical than me.

    I just can't help but think of the state as filled with untapped potential. I mean, take just Harris County, which had about 1,185,000 voters. The overall population in the country is about 4,181,000, 3,015,000 of which are older than 18. FAIR estimated that about 7.40 of the overall population is illegal. I'll bump that up a little bit to 15 percent, just to be extreme, for Harris County, which means we have about 452,000 adults that can't vote. Subtracting that from 3,015,000 gives us 2,563,000 people. Now assume 5 percent can't or won't ever vote. That chops off about 128,000 more people, leaving us with 2,435,000 potential voters.

    Assuming my numbers are not horribly off, that leaves us with turnout of 48.66 percent. Let's bump up turnout to 55 percent and give our candidate 55 percent of the county's vote. That brings the total voter pool to about 1,339,000 and gives our candidate about 736,000 votes, compared to Obama's 585,000 or so. That's an extra 151,000 votes, just from this one county. Added to his state total, this would be about 3,445,000 votes, up from about 3,294,000, out of a new total of about 8,113,000 votes, up from about 7,962,000.  That's 42,46 percent, a nice increase considering we're talking about just one county under what I think are conservative assumptions.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:12:44 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, that's what OFA should be doing (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, bumiputera, Englishlefty

      There are about 2 million registered voters in Harris County. By your numbers, which seem very plausible to me, that means there are more than 500,000 eligible unregistered voters just in Harris County.

      And only ~1.1 million of the registered voters actually voted.

      There is indeed so much untapped potential.

      And the thing is, it's the same exact thing in Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio.

      And plenty more in El Paso, McAllen, and even in smaller cities like Lubbock.

      •  And that's why (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Englishlefty

        I focus on this so much. You can safely ignore much of the state (as rough as that sounds, it's true) and work like a dog on a relatively small number of very vote-rich counties.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:31:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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