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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 11/8 (afternoon edition) (402 comments)

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  •  Yeah, people keep saying this... (7+ / 0-)

    But we had pickup opportunities this year in MA, ME, NV, IN, AZ. And we only had to try and defend 3 seats in R+6 states or worse.

    In 2014, we have no pickup opportunities as good as any of those 5 listed above unless Collins retires, and we're defending six seats in states than are R+7 or worse, and that's not counting NC or VA. And it'll be a mid-term year, too.

    The '12 and '14 maps are just not comparable.

    •  well two years out (6+ / 0-)

      Nobody considered ME or IN competitive.  They only became competitive due to a retirement and primary loss.

      •  Yeah, people keep saying this, too... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY, jncca

        But look at what I wrote: IN was still more competitive than anything we have a shot at in '14 short of a Collins retirement, even though it was a long-shot!

        •  Collins may end up retiring rather than face (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY

          a tea party primary challenge. We'll end up getting at least 1 GOP retirement by 2014 and we may even get 1 incumbent losing in a primary.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 02:58:26 PM PST

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          •  Dems need to recruit credible challengers (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ChadmanFL, Woody, MichaelNY

            in KY, GA, SC, ME, TN, TX.

            Any one of those IMO are prime candidates to get teabagged.  They could well be the IN of 2014.  If Collins retires or gets teabagged then ME is a prime target.  The others would take a minor miracle but we got a few minor miracles this year and 3 last time out so you never know.  If they go uncontested then we are guaranteed to lose.

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 04:29:09 PM PST

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            •  TX (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Zack from the SFV, jncca

              That race got "teabagged" this year, and look what happened? The Tea Party guy won. I wouldn't waste too much time or money on TX or TN, if there isn't enough of either to go around.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:21:21 PM PST

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              •  You never know (0+ / 0-)

                a 50 state strategy is what got us the majority in 2006 and 2008.  How the hell could one predict Mark Foley or Sharon Angle or Richard Mourdock.  You can't so you run in every race.  We were going to lose Texas anyway no matter whether or not a teabagger won or lost the primary.  BUt we were also supposed to lose Indiana no matter whether it was Lugar or Mourdock.  Didn't quite end up that way.    

                This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

                by DisNoir36 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 08:44:51 AM PST

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        •  Nothing looked competitive this year (6+ / 0-)

          MA and NV were the only seats that looked competitive at the start of the year, and we lost NV anyway.

          And still we got two other pickups thanks to Snowe's surprise retirement and Lugar's surprise primary loss.

          I was on record the past couple months as predicting D+1 in the Senate, sweated it, and then was proven overly pessimistic by a seat.

          I'll go on record now as saying we will hold the Senate come 2015.  Our net losses will be 5 max, and I bet no more than 4.  I see only one seat, SD, that is a likely loss up front.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:18:03 PM PST

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          •  Way to early to make definitive predictions. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but I think anything from -2 to -10ish is plausible.

          •  Is SD a loss because of a Johnson retirement (3+ / 0-)

            or because it's just too red?

            I said this to Chachy above, but it's worth repeating: instead of saying we don't have good candidates, let's find some and then give them the support necessary to win. It might sound pointless, but unless we work on competing in harder areas, we will always be fighting on their terms. We are willing to take candidates that aren't hardline liberals, unlike the Republicans who cost themselves very winnable seats in the name of ideological purity. The absolute worst thing that will happen to us is that we waste a lot of money and make little to no difference in the end, but if we get reasonably credible candidates who are willing to work at it, we will most likely help ourselves for future races. And given that we really don't have a lot of truly endangered incumbents, it's not as if trying to be aggressive will really make it a strict tradeoff.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:19:43 PM PST

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          •  I'm betting we lose Arkansas, West Virginia, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            South Dakota, and possibly Louisiana and Alaska, but I think the latter two will hold on.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 08:06:26 PM PST

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    •  Instead of saying there aren't pick ups in 2014, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

      let's find some candidates that are willing to take the plunge, hook them up with professional staffs, and give them the resources necessary to mobilize voters and advertise. We have to defend our incumbents as well, but there are only a handful of Democrats who are more likely to be in serious trouble than not.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:13:54 PM PST

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      •  More than anything we need to... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV, jncca

        Besides making sure no one retires, the most important thing to do is to take a page from Claire McCaskill & Harry Reid and try to get the least electable Republican through the  primaries. The Dems at the top of this list will have giant targets on their backs, which makes them likely to attract a lot of opponents. Unless a big-name governor-type can steamroll his/her way through the primary, it should be at least an option in a lot of races.

        If you'll notice, it wasn't always a Tea Party insurgent winning the primary all by themselves, sometimes an awful candidate had help (McCaskill dropped $2m to boost Akin). And as Jim Matheson recently showed us, boosting Libertarian candidates to siphon away votes will also be helpful.  

        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

        by arealmc on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:10:17 PM PST

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        •  And make sure to follow through in the general (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          As a Madisonian, the Republicans' ratfucking in WI-02 (a hostile open seat vacated by a R) back in 1998 provides a cautionary tale. Musser was a decent fit for the district and chose her opponent well (Wineke would have crushed her), but her campaign was probably too homophobic for that district even in 1998.

          That said, 1998 was another century, and it shows.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

          by fearlessfred14 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:54:05 PM PST

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        •  Sure, I guess that's a good strategic move, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but first and foremost, we need to make sure we have good candidates ourselves.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:18:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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