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View Diary: Updated - now with better math! AZ-02 : 81 vote margin! But a dicey road ahead for Barber (38 comments)

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  •  I can't tell from what you posted, (1+ / 0-)
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    biscobosco

    But is there a difference in margin within the counties between regular, early, and provisional ballots?  In other words, (1) can we expect that the Pinal provisionals net Barber more than the remaining earlies, such that he gains more than 1000 there; and (2) can we expect that early and provisional Cochise ballots to be better than a 40/60 split?  Also, there is a third county in the district IIRC

    I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

    by Superribbie on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:11:02 PM PST

    •  It's really impossible to tell (0+ / 0-)

      I would guess that the early ballots were leaning Dem because that was pushed so hard, but not sure.

      I would also give it a chance as you say that provisionals in  Pima county will be more Dem than Early votes, but it is really just a wild-ass guess, as well as a wild guess as to the rate of acceptance of provisionals this year.

      I used the percentage of provisionals from the primaries, but have no idea if that will be accurate.

      Hmm. a Third county?? Not showing in the secretary of state website. If you look at election results, it shows a breakdown by county. This is a redrawn district. Used to include another county maybe (santa cruz??)

      "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

      by biscobosco on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:18:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  went back and refigured this (0+ / 0-)

      You were right. I checked the margins and early votes coming in at more like 56/44 split in cochise.

      "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

      by biscobosco on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:57:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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