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View Diary: Updated - now with better math! AZ-02 : 81 vote margin! But a dicey road ahead for Barber (38 comments)

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  •  early v. election day (3+ / 0-)
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    biscobosco, manyamile, Lawrence

    The only thing missing from your math is that the early ballots appear to skew more Democratic than the election day ballots. McSally had a 10 point edge on election day (55-45), while Barber had a 6 point edge in the early ballots (53-47) according to the chart you cited. If the early ballots yet to be counted in Pima and Cochise both skew significantly in Barber's favor, this one could still break in his favor.

    •  There you go (3+ / 0-)
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      biscobosco, manyamile, PSzymeczek

      If Cochise early is 16 points better than Cochise Election Day, she wins the 14k votes there by 4%, not 20%, and gains only 560 there.

      I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

      by Superribbie on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:20:20 PM PST

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      •  updated the diary (1+ / 0-)
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        with the real margins from the Cochise elecitons web site.

        McSally has 12% margin so far on the early votes.  (27% polling place!)

        so my estimate puts her at 1600 gain there.  Not great, but certainly still possible if there are any mis-estamates included.

        (IE for example more Dem margin for  Provisionals than early)

        "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

        by biscobosco on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:25:10 PM PST

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