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View Diary: AZ Senate: 632,000 votes uncounted (updated: success!) (63 comments)

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  •  It's arithmetic. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ancblu

    Let's just assume, for simplicity sake, that all 632,000 ballots are legal - not likely, but close enough. Let's also assume that Carmona needs to make up the 78,700 and add a few in, again for simplicity, say 80,000.

    I'm going to ignore 4.5% that Marc Victor and write-ins got even though 5% is substantial, again for simplicity's sake.

    In order to make up the 80,000 shortfall, he needs 356,000 of the 632,000, leaving Flake with 276,000 - an 80,000 vote difference which means Carmona would be a little over 1000 votes ahead - probably would trigger a recount, but let's ignore that for simplicity sake.

    356,000 divided by 632,000 = 56% approximately, meaning he needs a 56-44 margin for those remaining votes.

    Flake is winning now by 4.5% points, which is pretty much (as has been pointed out) where all the polls predicted the margin the margin would be. Conventional wisdom would predict that that the remaining ballots fall that way as well, but maybe not, right?

    So what we are talking about is a swing from 5% advantage for Flake to a 10% advantage for Carmona.

    That's a 15% swing.

    Now Carmona did win Pima County by 13% but only 10% of the outstanding ballots come from Pima County, so he can't make it up there. The vast majority of the ballots are from areas that went heavily for Flake - Maricopa for instance by 7% - 7% both in early vote and election day.

    That's mainly what we are talking about: early votes.

    It just doesn't add up to any appreciable chance for Carmona.

    OK. And now we begin the part of the show where we pull out individual words and phrases of the commenter to try to determine the "real" meaning of the comment.... let the games begin.

    by hillbrook green on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:56:08 AM PST

    •  Provisionals breaking 2-1 for Carmona. (4+ / 0-)

      Put that in your pipe and smoke it. We need those votes!

      Lover, fighter, dreamer

      by kate mckinnon on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:04:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thank you. Never give up. who knows how many Flake (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kate mckinnon

        Voters want show up with I'd. They maybe discouraged after Romney's defeat.

      •  hey, take it easy. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ancblu

        Your diary asked the question why did Carmona concede.

        I gave you the numbers to show why.

        I'm not a big fan of Carmona, but I voted for him and I would rather have him than Flake.

        OK?

        now how about a source for that number on the provisional ballots?

        OK. And now we begin the part of the show where we pull out individual words and phrases of the commenter to try to determine the "real" meaning of the comment.... let the games begin.

        by hillbrook green on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:33:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  10% ? (0+ / 0-)

      I read that there are 116,206 uncounted votes in Pima county, that 20%.  

      "Education is a better safeguard of liberty than a standing army" Edward Everett 1852

      by Alan Arizona on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:03:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  An identical number (116,000) provisional ballots (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ColoTim

        in Maricopa County only! That's 67,44% of the total provisional ballots cast in AZ!!!

        I assume that the vast majority of these ballots is coming from heavily Latino populated West Pheonix suburbs.

        That's very good news for McCain..!!!

        Go Democrats!!!! Heading for a major GOP upset!!!

      •  50,000 left to count as of this am (0+ / 0-)

        according to the Tucson Daily Star.

        I quoted numbers reported on the Pima, Maricopa, and Arizona state election websites. The numbers are there. I didn't pull them out of thin air.

        The biggest number I ever heard here was 80,000 including provisional ballots.

        OK. And now we begin the part of the show where we pull out individual words and phrases of the commenter to try to determine the "real" meaning of the comment.... let the games begin.

        by hillbrook green on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:36:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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